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| 长江经济带粮食生产碳排放时空演变与影响因素 |
| Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of grain production carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt |
| Received:May 11, 2025 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2025.0423 |
| 中文关键词: 粮食安全;碳排放;可持续性;长江经济带;数字经济 |
| 英文关键词: food security;carbon emission;sustainability;Yangtze River Economic Belt;digital economy |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目（20AZD116）；江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目（KYCX24_1950）；南京财经大学粮食和物资学院服务国家特殊需求博士人才专项课题（BSZX2023-03） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | XU Jie | Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China | | | ZHAO Xia | Office of Disciplinary Construction and High-Level University Construction, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China | 104476959@qq.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为揭示长江经济带粮食生产碳排放水平及其变化特征，本研究以长江经济带 94个城市为研究对象，综合运用排放因子法、核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、空间杜宾模型等方法，对城市粮食生产碳排放的时序演进特征及其影响因素展开研究。结果表明，从时序表现看，2011—2023年粮食生产碳排放总量由9 099.56万t下降至8 473.73万t，年平均下降0.59%，农用物资投入与水稻种植是碳排放总量下降的重要驱动力。空间差异方面，粮食生产碳排放呈现明显的空间正相关性，高值区与低值区显著聚集。区域差异方面，长江经济带粮食生产碳排放基尼系数明显上升，但地区间差距拉大现象已有所缓解。空间计量结果显示，第一产业占比较高、农业社会化服务发展水平较高以及数字经济发展较为完善的长江经济带城市具有更好的碳减排效果且表现出明显的空间溢出效应。基于研究结论，就推动适度规模经营、优化生产方式、促进数字经济发展等方面提出粮食生产碳减排治理建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To reveal the carbon emissions level and evolution characteristics of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this study comprehensively employed methods such as the emission factor method, kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, and spatial Durbin model to investigate the temporal evolution patterns and influencing factors of carbon emissions in grain production across 94 cities within the region. The results indicated that, in terms of temporal performance, the total carbon emissions from grain production decreased from 90.995 6 million tons in 2011 to 84.737 3 million tons in 2023, with an average annual decline rate of 0.59%. Agricultural inputs and rice cultivation were significant drivers of this reduction in total carbon emissions. In terms of spatial differences, carbon emissions from grain production showed significant positive spatial correlation, with high-value areas and low-value areas being distinctly clustered. With regard to regional differences, the Gini coefficient of carbon emissions from food production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt had widened significantly, but the widening gap between regions had been mitigated. The results of spatial measurement showed that cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt with a higher proportion of primary industries, higher-quality socialized agricultural services, and better development of the digital economy had better carbon emission reduction effects and showed obvious spatial spillover effects. Based on the conclusions of the study, recommendations are made on the governance of carbon emission reduction in food production in terms of promoting appropriate scale of operation, focusing on upgrading production modes, and promoting the development of the digital economy. |
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