气候和社会经济因素对全球畜禽氮排放的驱动研究

程露曦; 任琛琛; 张秀明; 谷保静

文章摘要

气候和社会经济因素对全球畜禽氮排放的驱动研究

Nitrogen emissions from livestock production driven by climate and socioeconomic factors

Received:March 30, 2022

DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2022.0168

中文关键词: 畜禽，氮排放，氮利用率，影响因素，种养结合

英文关键词: livestock, nitrogen emissions, nitrogen use efficiency, influencing factors, cropland-based livestock production

基金项目:国家自然科学基金委员会国际（地区）合作与交流项目（42061124001）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
CHENG Luxi	School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
REN Chenchen	School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
ZHANG Xiuming	School of Agriculture and Food, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne VIC 3010, Australia
GU Baojing	Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China	bjgu@zju.edu.cn

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中文摘要:

畜禽氮（N）排放是全球人为氮排放的主要来源，探究其主要影响因素对畜禽氮减排具有重要意义。本研究通过分析全球166个国家畜禽的氮排放强度和氮利用率（NUE）明确畜禽氮排放特征，并运用计量经济学方法探究气候和社会经济因素对畜禽各阶段（包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两个阶段）氮排放强度的影响。结果发现，当前全球全链条畜禽的总氮（活性氮，包括N₂O、NH₃、NO₃^-和NO_x四种氮素形式）排放量为98 Tg，总NUE （包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两阶段的全链条NUE）为7%，其中用于饲料种植的氮排放占78%。畜禽种类和养殖方式对氮排放强度（以畜禽蛋白质质量计）影响很大，散养鸡氮排放强度最高（1.9 kg·kg^-1），山羊和绵羊的氮排放强度最低（0.6 kg·kg^-1），反刍动物主要以草和秸秆为食，饲料种植阶段氮排放较低。全球鸡的总NUE最高（9%），奶牛和奶水牛的总NUE最低（5%），单胃动物的饲料转化率较高，因而总NUE高。畜禽氮排放与人均GDP、城市化率和降雨量呈极显著的正相关关系，与温度相关性不显著。研究表明：社会经济发展提升了饲料生产阶段的氮排放强度，但降低了畜禽养殖阶段的氮排放强度并推动了畜禽养殖业的发展。目前饲料生产阶段的氮排放未与经济发展脱钩，未来通过优化畜禽饲料管理推动氮减排至关重要。

英文摘要:

Livestock nitrogen(N) emissions are the main source of global anthropogenic N emissions. It is crucial to investigate its main influencing factors for livestock N emission reduction. Here, we analyzed the N emission intensity and nitrogen use efficiency(NUE) of livestock in 166 countries worldwide to clarify the characteristics of livestock N emissions, and used econometrics to investigate the influence of major climatic and socioeconomic factors on the N emission intensity at all stages(containing feed production and livestock raising stages). We found that global total livestock N emissions(namely reactive nitrogen, including N₂O, NH₃, NO₃^- and NO_x) from the whole production chain were 98 Tg(78% from feed production), with an overall NUE(NUE over the whole production chain including feed production and livestock raising stages) of 7%. Different livestock types and feeding methods had influences on the N emission intensity(N emission amount per kilogram of protein), with the highest from backyard chickens(1.9 kg·kg^-1) and the lowest from goats and sheep(0.6 kg·kg^-1). Ruminants mainly feed on grass and straw with lower N emissions. Chickens had the highest NUE(9%) and dairy cattle and dairy buffalo had the lowest NUE(5%) due to higher feed conversion rates in monogastric animals. Livestock N emissions showed significant positive correlations with GDP per capita, urbanization and rainfall, and insignificant regressions with temperature. The study showed socioeconomic development increased N emission intensity in the feed production stage, but had the opposite effect in the livestock raising stage and promote the development of animal husbandry. The N emissions from feed production have still not decoupled with economic development although it reduced livestock raising N emissions significantly. Thus, it is essential to optimize livestock feed management to promote N emission reduction in the future.

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