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| 基于Markov和GM(1,1)模型的土地利用变化预测 |
| Prediction of Land Use Change Based on Markov and GM(1,1) Models |
| Received:December 22, 2015 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2015.0297 |
| 中文关键词: 土地统计;土地利用变化预测;模型;莱芜市;Markov;GM(1,1) |
| 英文关键词: land statistics;prediction of land use change;model;Laiwu City;Markov;GM(1,1) |
| 基金项目: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | SUN Yi-yang | College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai'an 271018, China | | | LI Yi-xue | College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai'an 271018, China | lyxland@163.com | | JIANG Huai-long | Shandong Land Survey & Planning Institute, Jinan 250014, China | | | ZHOU Ying-xue | College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai'an 271018, China | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了探索莱芜市土地利用变化规律,论文分别基于Markov模型与GM(1,1)模型对莱芜市进行了2015-2050年土地利用变化预测,分析讨论了预测结果。结果表明:(1)2种预测模型得出各地类变化趋势一致,短期内相应年份预测值吻合度高,说明短期内预测结果可信,中长期预测的趋势可作参考。(2)耕地在2015-2020年之间基本保持不变,2020-2050年呈小幅度减少趋势;而园地、林地、草地自始至终都为减少趋势,其中草地的减少幅度最大;城镇村及工矿用地、交通运输用地为增加趋势,其中城镇村及工矿用地增幅最大;水域及水利设施用地、其他土地略有减少,幅度很小。2种模型预测的短期内预测结果是可信的,可为莱芜市土地利用规划提供科学依据,预测方法可为土地利用变化预测提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1) were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1)The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2)The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change. |
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