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| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的呼和浩特市多情景土地利用变化动态模拟及碳储量评估 |
| Dynamic simulation of multi-scenario land use change and carbon storage assessment in Hohhot City based on PLUS-InVEST model |
| Received:April 20, 2023 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2023.0249 |
| 中文关键词: 呼和浩特市，PLUS模型，InVEST模型，土地利用，碳储量 |
| 英文关键词: Hohhot City, PLUS model, InVEST model, land use, carbon stock |
| 基金项目:内蒙古农业大学高层次/优秀博士人才引进科研启动项目（NDYB2021-8）；内蒙古自治区重点研发计划项目（2023YFDZ0026） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | WANG Zihao | College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China | | | WANG Bing | College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China
National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Forest Ecosystem of Daxing'anling, Genhe 022350, China | wbingbing2008@126.com | | ZHANG Yufei | College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China | | | ZHANG Qiuliang | College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China
National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Forest Ecosystem of Daxing'anling, Genhe 022350, China | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探究呼和浩特市土地利用变化对生态系统碳储量的影响，本研究基于InVEST模型与PLUS模型模拟预测呼和浩特市在自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护、城市发展4种情景下的土地利用与碳储量。结果表明： 1990—2020年呼和浩特市不透水面、林地、草地、水体等土地利用类型的面积呈增加状态，耕地、裸地、灌木地等土地类型的面积呈减少状态，其中灌木地和裸地的土地转出率较高，分别为93.63%和98.24%。InVEST模型估算结果显示，不透水面不断扩张，侵蚀耕地等高碳密度土地类型，造成呼和浩特市1990—2020年碳储量呈逐年递减趋势。2030年自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护、城市发展情景模拟下的呼和浩特市的碳储量与2020年相比均呈现减少状态，其中耕地保护情景碳储量降幅最小，其次为生态保护情景，说明采取合理的保护措施能够有效抑制碳储量下降。耕地保护情景能够有效减缓城市建筑的扩张趋势，生态保护情景则可有效增加水体、草地等生态类用地面积。研究表明，落实耕地和生态保护政策、优化土地利用结构、提高土地利用效率对呼和浩特市的可持续发展均有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the impact of land use change on ecosystem carbon storage in Hohhot City, this paper simulates and predicts the land use and carbon stock of Hohhot City under four scenarios, namely, natural development, ecological protection, arable land protection, and urban development based on the InVEST and PLUS models. The results showed that the area of land use types, such as impervious surface, forest land, grassland, and water bodies in Hohhot City increased from 1990 to 2020. The area of land types, such as cultivated land, bare land, and shrubs decreased, with shrubs and bare land having the highest land turn-out rate of 93.63% and 98.24%, respectively. The estimation results of the InVEST model indicated that the continuous expansion of anthropogenic ground, erosion of arable land, and other land use high carbon density land types that resulted in a decreasing trend of carbon storage in Hohhot City from 1990 to 2020. The carbon stocks in Hohhot City in 2030 under the abovementioned scenarios are predicted to decrease compared with those in 2020. Carbon stocks in the arable land protection scenario are predicted to decrease the least, followed by the ecological protection scenario, indicating that reasonable protection measures can effectively reduce the decrease of carbon stocks. The arable land conservation scenario can effectively slow down the expansion of urban buildings, while the ecological conservation scenario can effectively increase ecological land such as water bodies and grasslands. The study shows that the implementation of arable land and ecological protection policies, optimization of land use structure, and improvement of land use efficiency are all important for the sustainable development of Hohhot City. |
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