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| 地理探测器与Tobit模型在粤西地区粮食生产效率及影响因子分析中的比较应用 |
| Comparative application of geographical detector and Tobit model in analysis of grain production efficiency in the western Guangdong region and its influencing factors |
| Received:August 31, 2020 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2020.0482 |
| 中文关键词: 粮食生产，投入产出，交叉效率DEA，Tobit模型，地理探测器，粤西地区 |
| 英文关键词: grain production, input-output, cross efficiency DEA, Tobit model, geographic detector, western Guangdong |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFD1100103）；国家自然科学基金项目（U1901601） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | HUANG Xin-yi | College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510640, China
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation, Guangzhou 510642, China | | | REN Xiang-ning | College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510640, China
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation, Guangzhou 510642, China | | | MA Tao | College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China | | | HU Yue-ming | College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510640, China
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation, Guangzhou 510642, China
College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China
Guangdong Province Engineering Research Center for Land Information Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China | | | LI Bo | College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510640, China
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation, Guangzhou 510642, China
Guangdong Province Engineering Research Center for Land Information Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China | | | ZHANG Fei-yang | Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation, Guangzhou 510642, China
Guangdong Province Engineering Research Center for Land Information Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China
South China Academy of Natural Resources Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510642, China | | | XIE Jian-wen | College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510640, China
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation, Guangzhou 510642, China
Guangdong Province Engineering Research Center for Land Information Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China | 820934964@qq.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为明晰粤西地区粮食生产效率及其关键影响因子，实现优化资源配置效率和推进粮食生产转型升级，基于1999—2018年粤西地区茂名、阳江、湛江3市粮食生产数据，采用交叉效率DEA模型测算区域粮食生产效率，揭示近20年粮食生产效率的时空变化特征，并利用Tobit模型和地理探测器模型比较分析粮食生产效率的关键影响因子。结果表明：粤西地区粮食生产效率平均值为0.77，其中，茂名市粮食生产效率最高（0.88），阳江市次之（0.78），湛江市最低（0.65）。Tobit模型和地理探测器测算粤西地区粮食生产效率影响力（贡献力）最大的投入因子是农业机械总动力，分别为-1.082和0.942。Tobit模型测得的7个投入因子仅化肥施用量（0.015）与粮食生产效率呈显著正相关，有效灌溉面积、粮食播种面积、农药使用量3个因子与粮食生产效率相关性不显著，农用塑料薄膜使用量、从业人口、农业机械总动力3个因子呈显著负相关。而地理探测器测得所有因子均对粮食生产效率产生显著影响。阳江市投入因子贡献力与粤西地区大致相同，但化肥施用量贡献力高出有效灌溉面积0.008。湛江市与茂名市化肥和农药投入的贡献力仅次于农业机械总动力，有效灌溉面积贡献力均最低。但茂名市粮食播种面积的贡献力依次大于从业人口和农用塑料薄膜使用量，湛江市则相反。研究表明，20年来粤西地区粮食生产效率不高，整体呈中等效率水平，粮食生产效率先降后升的变化趋势显著；地理探测器测度结果无不显著因子存在，探测因子影响力比Tobit模型所得结果更稳定且偏误小；农业机械总动力是影响粤西3市粮食生产效率的主导因子，但不同城市粮食生产效率的因子贡献力差异较大，湛江和茂名对化肥、农药等污染较大的生产要素依赖性更强。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study aims to clarify the grain production efficiency in western Guangdong and its key influencing factors and to optimize the efficiency of resource allocation, promoting the transformation and enhancement of grain production. Based on the grain production data of three cities in western Guangdong, from 1999 to 2018, a cross efficiency DEA model was employed to calculate the regional grain production efficiency and reveal almost two decades of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the grain production efficiency. The key influencing factors of the grain production efficiency were compared and analyzed by using the Tobit model and geographical detector model. Results showed that the average grain production efficiency in western Guangdong was 0.77; Maoming City exhibited the highest efficiency(0.88), followed by Yangjiang City(0.78)and Zhanjiang City(0.65). The most important input factor(contribution)of the Tobit and geographical detector models was the total power of agricultural machinery(-1.082 and 0.942, respectively). However, the Tobit model demonstrated that the seven input factors affecting the grain production efficiency were positively correlated only with the amount of chemical fertilizer applied(0.015); that the effective irrigated area, grain sown area, and pesticide use amount were not correlated with the grain production efficiency; and that the remaining factors were negatively correlated. All factors measured by the geographical detector had a significant influence on grain production efficiency. The contribution of input factors in Yangjiang was similar to that in western Guangdong Province, but the contribution of the amount of chemical fertilizer was 0.008 higher than that of the effective irrigation area. The contribution of chemical fertilizer and pesticide input in Zhanjiang and Maoming was second only to the total power of agricultural machinery and the contribution of effective irrigation area was the lowest. However, the contribution of the area in which grain was sown in Maoming was higher than that of the employed population and agricultural plastic film, whereas Zhanjiang showed the opposite trend. In general, the grain production efficiency of western Guangdong during the past 20 years has not been high, and has remained at a medium level. The data demonstrate that grain production efficiency decreases first and then increases significantly. There are no insignificant factors in the measurement results of the geographical detector and the influence of detection factors is more stable and less biased than in the Tobit model. The total power of agricultural machinery is the leading factor affecting the grain production efficiency of the three cities in western Guangdong, but the contribution of the factors in different cities is quite different, Zhanjiang and Maoming are more dependent on the chemical fertilizer and pesticide pollution. |
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