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| 1961—2015年各国化肥消费量与人均GDP相关性分析 |
| Correlation of GDP per capita and chemical fertilizer consumption of different countries from 1961 to 2015 |
| Received:September 07, 2018 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2018.0227 |
| 中文关键词: 人均GDP，化肥消费量，相关性，拐点 |
| 英文关键词: GDP per capita, chemical fertilizer consumption, correlation, change point |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划两减项目（2016YFD0201306） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | WANG Bo | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China | | | XU Zhi-yu | Rural Energy & Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China | | | WANG Kai | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China | | | LI Ji | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China | | | XU Ting | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China | | | HAN Yi-jun | College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China | | | XI Bin | Rural Energy & Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China | | | HAO Xiao-yan | College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China | | | GAO Shang-bin | Rural Energy & Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China | gaoshb@agri.gov.cn |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 我国已经连续30年成为世界化肥消费量最大的国家，单位面积化肥施用量也长期居世界高位水平，化肥的过量施用既造成严重的农业面源污染，也制约着我国农业的可持续发展。本研究收集了美国、加拿大等12个典型国家1961—2015年的人均GDP和化肥消费量的时间序列数据，通过回归分析法得出各国人均GDP与化肥消费量显著相关（P<0.05），发达国家的人均GDP在8000~13 000美元区间时，化肥消费量由增长阶段进入稳定或降低阶段。从我国目前人均GDP（>8000美元）的发展水平与世界发达国家化肥的历史消费轨迹来看，我国的化肥消费量已经具备了从增长阶段转变到稳定阶段的条件。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| China has had the highest chemical fertilizer consumption worldwide for the last 30 years. Overconsumption of fertilizer is an large problem leading to serious agricultural non-point pollution and unsustainable agricultural development in China. The correlation of GDP per capita and chemical fertilizer consumption (1961-2015) of 12 countries, including the United States and Canada, were evaluated by regression analysis. The results revealed a significant correlation (P<0.05) between GDP per capita and chemical fertilizer consumption. The point of change from growth to stabilization for chemical fertilizer consumption occurred when the GDP per capita was $8000~13 000. In China, conditions facilitating the transformation of chemical fertilizer consumption from growth to stabilization were available based on the present GDP per capita level in China (>$8000) and the history of chemical fertilizer consumption in developed countries. |
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