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| 粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅲ.粮食生产潜力中、长期预测理论、模型及其应用 |
| The Theory, Method and Its Application of the Grain Yield Forecast Ⅲ. The Theory, Method and Its Application of Medium and Long-Term Forecast of the Grain Yield Potential |
| 投稿时间：2014-03-25 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2014.0069 |
| 中文关键词: 粮食潜力 中长期 预测 理论 方法 |
| 英文关键词: grain yield potential medium and long-term prediction theory method |
| 基金项目:中国农业科学院科技创新工程(2014-cxgc-hyl) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 刘书田 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 王铄今 | 北京农业信息技术研究中心, 北京 100089 | | | 米长虹 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 侯彦林 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | bjyours@sina.com | | 郑宏艳 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 王农 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 蔡彦明 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 黄治平 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 夏维 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 任军 | 吉林省农业科学院, 吉林 长春 130033 | | | 王新民 | 河南牧业经济学院, 河南 郑州 450011 | | | 侯显达 | 北京优雅施软件研发服务中心, 北京 100089 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的目的是为国家中、长期粮食生产规划提供科学依据。粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的"双向预测理论":从若干个预测模型中选择出2个模型,一个模型预测的未来产量是持续增加的,体现产量持续增加的科技进步力量;另一个模型预测的未来产量是先增加后减少或持续减少的,体现影响产量持续增加的负面综合因素力量。应用结果表明:模型可预测未来1~10年的粮食生产潜力,平均预测误差在5%以内。大量案例证明粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的"双向预测理论"是科学的、方法是通用的、结果是实用的。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The purpose of the long-term prediction of grain yield potential is to provide scientific basis for planning medium and long-term food production in China. The‘bidirectional prediction theory’ of food production potential for medium and long-term is defined as follows: choosing two models from several prediction models, one model to predict the future output is increasing, which is an embodiment of science and technology, the other to predict the future output is increasing first and then decreasing or declining, which is reflected integrative negative factors impact the yield increasing. The application results showed that the model could predict the grain yield potential in the future of 1 to 10 years, and the average error of prediction was less than 5%. The‘bidirectional prediction theory’of food production for medium and long-term was scientific, its method was universal, and the result was practical. |
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