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| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的新疆土地利用碳排放与碳储量时空演变分析及模拟 |
| Analysis and simulation of the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon emission/storage of land use in Xinjiang based on PLUS-InVEST model |
| Received:September 15, 2024 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0732 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用;碳源汇;碳平衡;PLUS-InVEST模型;新疆 |
| 英文关键词: land use;carbon emission and storage;carbon balance;PLUS-InVEST model;Xinjiang |
| 基金项目:新疆干旱区水循环与水利用实验室开放课题项目（XJYS0907-2023-06） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | LI Jianqiang | College of Public Administration(Law School), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China | | | ZHANG Feiyun | College of Public Administration(Law School), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China | feiyun42265@126.com | | LI Qian | Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Use in Arid Region, Urumqi 830011, China
Xinjiang Xinyuan Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Snow Avalanche in Tianshan Mountains, Xinyuan 835800, China | | | TENG Lun | College of Public Administration(Law School), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China | | | LI Daqiang | College of Public Administration(Law School), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China | | | ZHOU Xinying | College of Public Administration(Law School), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 土地利用变化对区域碳循环影响显著，研究土地利用碳排放、碳储量时空演变格局及平衡状况对优化土地利用结构和助力“双碳”目标具有重要理论和现实意义。本研究基于新疆土地利用数据，使用土地利用碳排放测算模型、InVEST模型和PLUS模型计算并分析2000—2020年新疆土地利用碳排放、碳储量及其关系的时空演变规律，并预测未来土地利用碳排放、碳储量的时空变化趋势。结果表明：2000—2020 年新疆碳排放量以 824.78 万 t·a-1的速度增加，建设用地能源消耗对碳排放贡献率超过 95%。2000—2020年新疆土地利用总碳储量呈现出先增加后减少再增加的波动增加趋势；草地对碳储量贡献最大，约为 47%。2000—2020年新疆总体处于碳汇状态，土地利用碳排储比均小于0.02。局部碳排储比最大值可达5.42，位于经济发展水平较高的城市地区，且其范围呈现扩大趋势。建设用地是导致局部碳排储比变化的直接原因，但是2000—2020年建设用地面积的增加（108.48%）远低于建设用地碳排储比的增加（625.57%）。自然发展、生产建设、生态保护三种情景下，2030—2060年新疆碳排储比增速分别为每10年0.022 8、0.027 5、0.022 1，2060年局部碳排储比最大值高达21.32。生产建设活动会导致碳失衡加剧，生态保护措施有利于缓解碳排储比增长，但作用有限。未来想要实现“双碳”目标，在控制建设用地范围的同时，必须重点管控单位面积建设用地的碳排放量。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Land use changes have significant impact on regional carbon cycling. It is significant to analyze the spatial and temporal variation pattern of carbon emission and carbon storage and their balance for optimizing the land use structure and promoting the target of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The carbon emission and storage were calculated by InVEST model using land use data in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020. The carbon emission and storage were simulated by PLUS model in the future. The result indicated that the carbon emissions increased at a rate of 8.247 8 million tons per year from 2000 to 2020. The energy consumption contribution of construction land was more than 95% to carbon emissions. The carbon storage creased first, then decreased, then increased from 2000 to 2020. The contribution of carbon storage from grassland accounted for 47%. It was carbon sink state from 2000 to 2020 with carbon emission to storage ratio less than 0.02. The regional maximum carbon emission to storage ratio（5.42） expanded which located in city areas. Construction land directly caused the increase of regional carbon storage ratio. The increase rate of construction land area（108.48%）was lower than that of carbon emission to storage ratio in construction land（625.57%）. The carbon emission to storage ratio increased with rates of 0.022 8, 0.027 5 and 0.022 1 per 10 years under the scenario of natural development, production construction and ecological conservation. The regional carbon emission to storage ratio would reach 21.32 in 2060. Production construction scenario aggravate the carbon imbalance. Ecological conservation scenario relieve the increasing of carbon emission to storage ratio, but its effect is limited. The carbon emission and the area of the construction land should be controlled seriously in the future for the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target. |
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