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| 碳排放约束下江苏粮食绿色生产效率动态变化与转型路径 |
| Dynamic evolution and transformation pathways of grain green production efficiency under carbon emission constraints：a case study of Jiangsu Province |
| Received:May 04, 2025 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2025.0413 |
| 中文关键词: 碳排放约束;粮食绿色生产效率;驱动因素;粮食安全;绿色全要素生产率 |
| 英文关键词: carbon emission constraint;green production efficiency of grain;driving factor;food security;green total factor productivity |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（72442023）；国家社会科学基金重大项目（23&ZD122） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | LI Tianxiang | College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
The Philosophy and Social Science Laboratories of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, Intelligent Laboratory for Food Security Governance and Policy, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China | | | LIAO Yuanyi | MSU Institute, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China | | | ZANG Xingyue | College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China | zangxingyue@sina.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了探究碳排放约束下江苏粮食绿色生产效率的演进态势与转型路径，本研究采用超效率数据包络分析模型结合要素生产率指数（SBM-ML）等方法，对江苏 13个地级市 2000—2023年粮食生产绿色生产效率进行测算并分析其时序演变及空间差异，在此基础上运用双向固定效应模型进一步量化分析了江苏粮食绿色生产效率的驱动因素。结果表明：江苏粮食绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）整体稳步提升，由 2000年的 0.99升至 2023年的 1.34。但区域间存在进步快慢不一、效率分化明显的结构性差异，苏中表现最优，GTFP 均值达 1.19；苏北进步显著，由 1.02 升至 1.34，但波动较大；苏南虽技术进步强劲，技术进步（TC）最高达 1.62，但效率提升存在明显短板，技术效率（EC）均值仅为 0.86。在影响因素中，粮食单产为最主要的正向驱动，农业规模经营则与 GTFP 呈倒“U”形关系，存在最优区间，非农产业发展则显著抑制 GTFP。研究建议在政策上应聚焦提升技术效率、优化规模结构、促进城乡要素双向流动、缓解非农产业虹吸效应，并因地制宜推进差异化土地制度与农业服务体系，夯实绿色转型基础，以实现粮食安全与低碳目标协同发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study tracked the evolution of grain-sector green efficiency in Jiangsu Province（2000—2023）under carbon-emission constraints. Using a super-efficiency SBM-ML model, it measured temporal trends and spatial disparities across 13 prefecture-level cities, and applied a two-way fixed-effects model to identify key driving factors. The results showed that green total factor productivity（GTFP）in Jiangsu rose steadily from 0.99 in 2000 to 1.34 in 2023. Central Jiangsu performed best with an average of 1.19. Northern Jiangsu improved from 1.02 to 1.34 but showed high volatility. Southern Jiangsu, though achieving a peak technological progress of 1.62, remained constrained by low efficiency, with an average technical efficiency of only 0.86. Grain yield acted as a significant positive driver, farm scale had an inverted U-shaped effect, indicating an optimal moderate size, and non-agricultural expansion suppressed green efficiency. These findings suggest that policy should focus on enhancing technical efficiency, defining optimal farm scale thresholds, facilitating urban-rural factor mobility, restraining the siphoning effects of non-agricultural sectors, and implementing region-specific land and service policies to achieve synergies between grain security and low-carbon goal. |
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