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| 洱海流域土地利用冲突时空演变及多情景模拟预测 |
| Spatial and temporal evolution of land use conflicts in the Erhai basin and prediction by multi-scenario simulation |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-08 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0298 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用冲突，MOP模型，PLUS模型，格局优化，洱海流域 |
| 英文关键词: land use conflict, MOP model, PLUS model, pattern optimization, Erhai basin |
| 基金项目:云南省农业联合专项面上项目（202101BD070001-101） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 何紫玲 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201
云南省高校绿色智慧农田与碳减排工程研究中心, 昆明 650201
云南省智慧农业与水安全国际联合研发中心, 昆明 650201 | | | 陈运春 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201 | | | 郭晓飞 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201 | | | 张鋆 | 云南农业大学资源与环境学院, 昆明 650201 | | | 张莹 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201
云南省高校绿色智慧农田与碳减排工程研究中心, 昆明 650201
云南省智慧农业与水安全国际联合研发中心, 昆明 650201 | | | 黄玉南 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201
云南省高校绿色智慧农田与碳减排工程研究中心, 昆明 650201
云南省智慧农业与水安全国际联合研发中心, 昆明 650201 | | | 柳兴鹏 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201 | | | 史钰炷 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201 | | | 曾维军 | 云南农业大学水利学院, 昆明 650201
云南省高校绿色智慧农田与碳减排工程研究中心, 昆明 650201
云南省智慧农业与水安全国际联合研发中心, 昆明 650201 | zengweijunde@163.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为精确识别和测度区域土地利用冲突，清晰呈现其时空演化过程，本研究以洱海流域为研究对象，结合多尺度分割与随机森林算法精确提取四期土地利用数据，构建土地利用冲突测度模型，系统分析了1992—2022年土地利用冲突时空演变特征及规律，并创新地耦合多目标规划（MOP）与土地利用变化模拟（PLUS）模型模拟2035年4种发展情景下的土地利用格局并分析其土地利用冲突。结果表明：洱海流域1992—2022年的土地利用冲突呈先增后减的趋势，重度冲突区集中在城市的中心及周边地区，轻度冲突区域分布在苍山洱海等自然生态保护区。不同发展情景下流域土地利用结构分布中，经济发展情景（ED）的建设用地明显扩张，2035年面积占比比2022年增加了5.5个百分点，生态保护发展情景（TD）更注重流域生态环境保护，林地、湿地和水域的面积变化最大，面积占比比2022年分别增加了2.6、0.7个和10.0个百分点，可持续发展情景（SD）中各地类面积变化较为平衡，处于ED与TD情景的中间范围。SD情景下，流域整体的土地利用冲突水平最低，格局布局最优，斑块密度值为0.18，边缘密度值为7.9，各地类面积变化比其他情景更均衡，景观格局破碎度和复杂性最低。在当今政策规划下可持续发展情景为2035年洱海流域的最优土地利用布局。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to accurately identify and measure regional land use conflicts and clearly present their spatial and temporal evolution, this study takes the Erhai basin as the research object, accurately extract four periods of land use data by combining multi-scale segmentation and random forest algorithm, construct a land use conflict measurement model, systematically analyze the characteristics and laws of spatial-temporal evolution of land use conflicts from 1992 to 2022, and innovatively couple the Multi-Objective Planning（MOP） and the Simulation of Land Use Changes（PLUS）models to simulate the land use patterns and calculate the land use conflicts under four development scenarios in 2035. The results showed that the land use conflicts in the Erhai basin from 1992 to 2022 showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, with severe conflicts concentrated in the center and surrounding areas of the city, and mild conflicts distributed in the natural ecological reserves such as the Cangshan Mountain and the Erhai Sea. In the results of the distribution of the land use structure of the watershed under different development scenarios, the construction land in the economic development scenario（ED）was significantly expanded, with an increase of 5.5 percentage points in 2035 compared with 2022, and the ecological protection and development scenario（TD）aid more attention to ecological environmental protection in the watershed, with the area of forest land, wetland and water area being the most changed, with an increase of 2.6, 0.7 and 10.0 percentage points respectively compared with 2022, while the sustainable development scenario（SD）focus more on ecological protection of the watershed. The area changes of each category in the SD were more balanced, which was in the middle range between the ED and TD scenarios. The SD scenario has the lowest level of land use conflict and the optimal pattern layout in the watershed as a whole, with a patch density（PD）value of 0.18 and an edge density（ED）value of 7.9, with a more balanced change in the area of each category than in the other scenarios, and with the lowest degree of fragmentation and complexity of the landscape pattern. The SD scenario can obtain the optimal land use layout of Erhai basin in 2035 under current policy planning. |
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