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| 河南省农业面源总磷污染时空演变特征及影响因素分析 |
| Characterization of spatial and temporal evolution of total phosphorus pollution from agricultural non-point sources and analysis of influencing factors in Henan Province |
| 投稿时间：2024-03-27 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0199 |
| 中文关键词: 农业面源污染 总磷 时空演变 驱动因素 随机森林 地理探测器 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural non-point pollution total phosphorus spatial and temporal evolution driving factor Random Forest Geodetector |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFD1700900）；国家自然科学基金项目（42077004）；河南省科技研发计划联合基金重点项目（225200810045） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为评估面源总磷（TP）污染排放量及其主要驱动因素，本研究以高产量和高投入量为特点的河南省为例，基于清单分析法评估2000—2020年研究区各县TP污染排放量，探讨TP污染的时空变化特征、主要污染来源和空间集聚情况，并运用随机森林模型和地理探测器识别TP污染的关键驱动因素和主要影响因子。结果表明：2000—2020年间，河南省TP排放量从1.051×105 t上升至 1.158×105 t，呈现先上升后下降的趋势；化肥和畜禽养殖是 TP排放量的主要来源，两者贡献率从 80.23% 上升至 82.52%。河南省TP排放量呈现东南高、西北低的空间特征。邓州市、滑县的TP排放总量最多，分别为3 525.60、3 126.07 t；TP污染的热点区域主要集中在黄淮海平原以及西南部分县区，冷点区主要分布在豫西地区。地理探测器结果表明农业生产条件（解释度q=0.617）、磷肥施用量（q=0.496）、高程（q=0.324）和坡度（q=0.340）是 TP 污染的主要驱动因素；随机森林结果表明农业生产条件、磷肥施用量、坡度、城镇化率和环境规制是TP污染的驱动因素中相对重要性较高的影响因子。研究表明，我国农业政策影响了河南省TP污染排放量，而且驱动因素的影响机制不同，未来需制定针对性的农业发展和管理政策，这对提高该区域农业面源污染防控和可持续发展具有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The loss of total phosphorus（TP）from non-point sources has led to serious problems of agricultural surface pollution, resulting in eutrophication of water and soil contamination. It is important to accurately assess the discharge of TP pollution and to explore its main driving factors to manage TP pollution and improve the quality of water environment. Taking Henan Province with high production and input volume as an example, the study assessed the TP pollution discharge of counties in the study area from 2000 to 2020 based on the inventory analysis method, explored the spatial and temporal change characteristics of TP pollution, the main sources of pollution and spatial agglomeration, and identified the key drivers and main influencing factors of TP pollution through the Random Forest and the Geodetector. The results showed that during the period of 2000—2020, TP discharge in Henan Province increased from 1.051 × 105 t to 1.158 × 105 t, showing a trend of increasing and then decreasing. Chemical fertilizer and livestock and poultry breeding were the main sources of TP discharge, and the contribution rate of both increased from 80.23% to 82.52%. TP discharge in Henan Province showed the spatial characteristics of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. In particular, the total amount of TP discharge in Dengzhou City and Huaxian County was the largest, which is 3 525.06 t and 3 126.07 t. The hot spot areas of TP pollution were mainly concentrated in the Huaihai Plain and some counties in the south-western part of the province, and the cold spot areas were mainly distributed in the western part of the province. TP discharge showed significant correlation with all the influencing factors. Geodetector results showed that agricultural production conditions（q=0.617）, phosphorus fertilizer application（q=0.496）, elevation（q=0.324）, and slope（q=0.340）were the main drivers of TP pollution. Random Forest results showed that agricultural production conditions, phosphorus fertilizer application, slope, urbanization rate, and environmental regulation were the primary factors controlling the TP pollution in Henan Province. The study shows that China′ s agricultural policy affects TP pollution discharge in Henan Province and the driving factors have different influence mechanisms, and targeted agricultural development and management policies need to be formulated in the future, which is important for improving the prevention and control of agricultural surface pollution and sustainable development in the region. |
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