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| 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的湘江流域碳储存时空演变及多情景预测 |
| Spatiotemporal evolution and multi-scenario projections of carbon storage in the Xiangjiang River basin using the PLUS and InVEST models |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-16 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2025.0048 |
| 中文关键词: 碳储量 土地利用变化 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 InVEST模型 |
| 英文关键词: carbon storage land use change PLUS model multi-scenario simulation InVEST model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 土地利用变化与陆地生态系统碳储量显著关联，探究湘江流域土地利用变化对碳储量的影响，有助于为流域碳管理提供科学依据和决策支持。本研究耦合PLUS模型和InVEST模型，定量评估湘江流域2000—2020年间的碳储量时空分布，模拟2030年四种情景（自然发展、生态恢复、耕地保护、城镇发展）下的土地利用和碳储量变化特征。结果表明：2000—2020年，林地、耕地是湘江流域的主要土地利用类型，平均占比分别为61.85%、30.73%。耕地和草地面积显著减少，建设用地转入率达60.15%，扩张明显；20年间，湘江流域碳储量呈先增后减趋势，净减少 151.29万 t。碳储量高值区集中于东部、南部林地区域，低值区位于流域北部长株潭城市群及中西部耕地片区；2030年多情景模拟中，土地利用变化具有明显的人为干预特征，反映了政策和规划对土地利用变化的深刻影响；除生态恢复情景通过对生态用地的保护与恢复使碳储量增加 473.15万 t外，其余情景均明显下降，其中城镇发展情景下降量最大，达1 098.01万t，说明生态用地发挥了重要的碳汇作用，建设用地扩张则会带来大量碳流失。研究表明，未来湘江流域应推行多情景协同优化策略，构建“控增-修复-补偿”三位一体的碳储量保护体系，有利于减缓碳储量下降速率，实现碳汇效益最大化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Land use change significantly impacts carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Investigating its effects in the Xiangjiang River basin provides critical scientific insights for basin-scale carbon management. This study coupled the PLUS and InVEST models to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and simulated future land use and carbon storage changes under four scenarios：natural development, ecological restoration, cropland protection, and urban development for 2030. The results revealed that forestland and cropland dominated the basin’s land use structure, with average proportions of 61.85% and 30.73%, respectively. Cropland and grassland areas decreased significantly, while built-up areas expanded markedly, exhibiting a 60.15% transition rate. Over the 20-year period, carbon storage initially increased but subsequently decreased, resulting in a net reduction of 1.512 9 million tons. Spatially, high carbon storage values concentrated in forested regions of the eastern and southern basin, whereas low-value areas clustered in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration and mid-western cropland zones. Multi-scenario simulations for 2030 demonstrated distinct anthropogenic impacts on land use patterns, reflecting the profound influence of policy interventions. Among the scenarios, ecological restoration increased carbon storage by 4.731 5 million tons through ecological land preservation, while other scenarios showed declines, with the steepest reduction of 10.980 1 million tons under urban development. These findings underscore the vital carbon sequestration role of ecological lands and the risks of carbon loss from urban expansion. To mitigate carbon storage decline, this study proposes a tripartite strategy encompassing growth control, ecological restoration, and compensation mechanisms, offering a systematic approach to maximize carbon sink benefits in the Xiangjiang River basin. |
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