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| 中国畜牧业氧化亚氮排放时空演变特征及影响因素 |
| Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of nitrous oxide emissions from animal husbandry in China |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-04 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0953 |
| 中文关键词: 畜牧业，氧化亚氮排放，时空演变，脱钩分析，影响因素 |
| 英文关键词: animal husbandry, nitrous oxide emission, spatial-temporal evolution, decoupling analysis, influencing factor |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为评估我国畜牧业氧化亚氮（N2O）排放时空演变特征、脱钩状态及影响因素，本研究采用排放因子法核算2000—2022年全国31个省份畜牧业N2O排放量，从总量、结构和强度三个角度分析其演进趋势和分布特征，利用Tapio弹性脱钩模型探究其与畜牧业产值间的脱钩状态，并采用对数平均迪氏分解法（LMDI）厘定影响因素及其贡献度。结果表明：从总量来看，全国畜牧业N2O排放量呈上升-下降-反弹趋势，到2022年排放量达2.418×105 t，排放高值区为西南、华北和华中地区；从结构来看，猪粪是畜牧业N2O第一大排放源；从强度来看，各省N2O排放强度均呈下降趋势，其中西北和西南地区降幅较大。研究期内我国畜牧业N2O排放与其产值之间主要呈弱脱钩和强脱钩交替状态，稳定性较差。经济和人口规模因素促进了畜牧业N2O排放，其中经济因素贡献最大，约为6.173×105 t；效率和结构因素抑制了排放，效率因素是主要抑制因素，总减排贡献为4.567×105 t。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To assess the spatial-temporal evolution, decoupling status, and influencing factors of nitrous oxide（N2O）emissions from animal husbandry in China, this study applied the emission factor method to estimate N2O emissions across 31 provinces from 2000 to 2022. Through multidimensional analysis encompassing total emissions, structural composition, and emission intensity, we systematically revealed the evolutionary trends and spatial distribution patterns. The Tapio elasticity decoupling model was applied to examine the emission -output value relationship of the animal husbandry, complemented by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia index（LMDI）model to determine the influencing factors and their contributions. Results showed that, from the total amount, national N2O emissions of the animal husbandry exhibited a growth-decline-rebound trend, reaching 2.418 × 105 t in 2022, with high-emissions clusters concentrated in southwest, north, and central China. In terms of structure, swine manure constituted the dominant emission source. In terms of intensity, the intensity of N2O demonstrated a declining trend across all provinces, particularly pronounced in the northwest and southwest regions. During the study period, the relationship between N2O emissions and its production value primarily alternated between weak decoupling and strong decoupling, exhibiting poor stability. The analysis of influencing factors revealed that both economic and population size factors contributed to the increase in N2O emissions from the animal husbandry, with economic factors being the predominant driver at approximately 6.173×105 t. In contrast, efficiency and structural factors acted as suppressors of emissions, with the efficiency factor playing the leading role in emission reduction, contributing a total of 4.567×105 t. |
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