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| 基于CA-Markov模型的洮河流域土地利用模拟与生态系统服务变化 |
| Land use simulation and ecosystem service change in Taohe River Basin based on CA-Markov model |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-09 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0978 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用变化模拟，生态系统服务功能，CA-Markov模型，InVEST模型，生态系统服务指数，洮河流域 |
| 英文关键词: land use change simulation, ecosystem service function, CA-Markov model, InVEST model, ecosystem service index, Taohe River Basin |
| 基金项目:甘肃农业大学伏羲青年英才培育计划项目（Gaufx-03Y08） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 洮河流域土地利用变化对区域生态系统服务的演变具有重要意义，研究不同情景下该区域土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响，可为流域实现可持续化发展提供借鉴。本研究利用CA-Markov模型模拟2030年该流域在自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护3种不同情景下的土地利用分布格局，结合InVEST模型计算不同情景下的生境质量、产水量、土壤保持量以及碳储量服务，在此基础上利用层次分析法来构建综合生态系统服务指数（CES），从空间上反映多种生态系统服务的供给总量以及不同情景下土地利用对生态系统服务的影响。结果表明：在自然发展情景下洮河流域南部以及东北部建设用地尤其是农村居民点的扩张会引发产水量、土壤保持量、生境质量和碳储量的下降，分别下降了0.43%、0.28%、3.23%和0.84%。在耕地保护情景下流域中部和南部耕地向草地的扩张会导致生境质量和土壤保持量的下降，分别下降了 6.45% 和 1.12%。在生态保护情景下除产水量下降了0.45%以外，其余生态系统服务均呈现上升趋势。在耕地保护情景下CES下降区域面积最多，占比达到了77.18%，主要分布在流域中部林地、草地被耕地侵占区域。未来需要进一步平衡耕地数量，避免过度扩张。在自然发展情景中CES变化较小区域占区域总面积的91.70%，表明洮河流域生态系统具有良好的调节能力，应避免过度的人为干预。在生态保护的情景下，CES上升区域的面积占比最高，达到了86.64%。未来应积极推行生态修复工作并优化土地利用策略，这将有助于促进流域生态系统的健康发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Land use change in Taohe Basin is of great significance to the evolution of regional ecosystem service. Studying the influence of land use change on ecosystem service in different scenarios can provide reference for the sustainable development of the basin. In this study, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the distribution pattern of land use in the Taohe River Basin under three different scenarios of natural development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection in 2030. The InVEST model was used to calculate the habitat quality, water yield, soil conservation and carbon storage services under different scenarios. On this basis, the analytic hierarchy process was used to construct a comprehensive ecosystem service index（CES）to reflect the total supply of various ecosystem services and the impact of land use on ecosystem services under different scenarios. The results showed that the expansion of construction land in the south and northeast, especially in rural settlements, under the natural development scenario would trigger a decline in water yield, soil retention, habitat quality and carbon reserves（decreased by 0.43%, 0.28%, 3.23% and 0.84%, respectively）. Under the scenario of farmland protection, habitat quality and soil retention decreased by 6.45% and 1.12%, respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario, ecosystem service showed an upward tendency except the water yield decreased by 0.45%. Under the scenario of cultivated land protection, the area of CES decreased was the most, accounting for 77.18%, mainly distributed in the central area of woodland and grassland occupied by cultivated land. In the future, the amount of arable land needs to be further balanced to avoid excessive expansion. In the natural development scenario, small CES changes accounted for 91.70% of the total area, indicating that the Taohe River basin ecosystem has good regulation capacity, and excessive human intervention should be avoided. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the area of the ecosystem service value increased accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 86.64%. In the future, ecological restoration work should be actively promoted and land use strategies should be optimized, which will contribute to the healthy development of the watershed ecosystem. |
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