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| 基于MAS的梯田非粮化农户行为决策机制与模拟 |
| Decision-making mechanism and simulation of non-grain use behavior of farmers on terraced fields based on MAS |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-31 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0861 |
| 中文关键词: 梯田非粮化，农户，行为决策，多智能体系统（MAS），陇中陇东地区 |
| 英文关键词: non-grain utilization of terrace, farmer, behavioral decision-making, Multi-Agent System（MAS）, Longzhong and Longdong regions |
| 基金项目:甘肃省高校创新基金项目（2024B-075）；甘肃省高校研究生“创新之星”项目（2025CXZX-779） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探究农户梯田非粮化行为运行逻辑，本研究选取3个典型研究区：果粮复合型（区1）、粮作撂荒混合型（区2）、苹果主导型（区3），基于多智能体系统（MAS），结合实地调研和多情景模拟，探究了甘肃陇中陇东地区农户在梯田利用决策中的行为机制。结果表明：农户梯田利用行为决策的内在机制是以追求经济效益最大化为主要目标，由家庭资源禀赋产生更强的限制和指导作用，外部自然、社会、政策环境提供额外激励或约束的过程，其中，三个研究区内外部环境变量组合权重比值分别为：0.486∶0.514、0.575∶0.425和0.538∶0.462。陇中陇东地区农户梯田利用决策行为呈现以非粮利用为主导、粮食生产为辅的趋势，三个研究区非粮化利用最终决策值分别为0.852、0.842、0.942。研究区农户对各梯田利用方式感知度、反馈值、决策值及主要环境变量具有空间异质性。多情景模拟中，粮食生产激励政策对提高农户粮食作物决策值具有显著正向影响，非粮化市场饱和能有效抑制经济作物型非粮化，吸引劳动力回流可有效缓解撂荒现象。最后，提出针对性的农业非粮化格局优化策略，为促进农村可持续发展提供参考 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the operational logic of farmers′ non-grain use behavior on terraced fields, this study based on Multi-Agent System （MAS）, combined field surveys and multi-scenario simulations to investigate the decision-making mechanisms of farmers in terraced field utilization in the Longzhong and Longdong regions. The results indicated that the intrinsic mechanism of farmers ′ decision-making in terraced field utilization was primarily aimed at maximizing economic benefits, with household resource endowment exerting a stronger constraining and guiding influence, while the external natural, social, and policy environments provided additional incentives or constraints. Specifically, the weight ratios of internal and external environmental variables in the three study areas were 0.486∶0.514, 0.575∶ 0.425, and 0.538∶0.462, respectively. The decision-making behavior of farmers in terraced field utilization in the Longzhong and Longdong regions showed a trend dominated by non-grain use with grain production as a supplement. The final decision values for non-grain use in the three study areas were 0.852, 0.842, and 0.942, respectively. Farmers in the study areas exhibited spatial heterogeneity in their perceptions, feedback values, decision values, and main environmental variables regarding different terraced field utilization methods. In multi-scenario simulations, grain production incentive policies had a significantly positive impact on increasing farmers ′ decision values for grain crops. Market saturation of non-grain uses could effectively curb non-grain use driven by economic crops and attract labor backflow, thereby effectively alleviating the phenomenon of land abandonment. Finally, targeted strategies for optimizing the pattern of agricultural non-grain use were proposed to provide references for promoting sustainable rural development. |
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