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| 基于人口收缩视域和土地利用多情景预测的东北黑土区人地关系演化研究 |
| Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of human-land relationship in the black soil area of northeast China from the perspective of population shrinkage |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-04 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0951 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用，人地关系，东北黑土区，PLUS模型 |
| 英文关键词: land use, human-land relationship, black soil area in Northeast China, PLUS model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（42471240） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究聚焦东北黑土区，基于人口收缩视域，采用土地利用程度综合指数、人地关系弹性系数、PLUS模型等方法，旨在通过对未来人口与土地利用的多情景预测，进一步探讨不同情景下人地关系的耦合特征及其时空演变规律，从而为区域土地的可持续利用与科学规划提供决策依据。结果表明：2000—2020年黑土区常住人口显著收缩，尤以北部和东南部为甚；土地利用程度呈东南高、西北低的空间分布格局，尽管综合指数水平持续提高，但因人口收缩限制了进一步发展。2030年和2050年多种情景下土地利用差异主要体现在耕地、林地、建设用地三类用地，耕地保护情景能够有效减缓城市建筑的扩张趋势，生态保护情景则可有效增加林地、水域等生态类用地面积，经济发展与生态保护之间的矛盾仍需平衡。2000—2020年土地利用程度与人口数量耦合呈现不协调发展态势，耦合类型由以H类（土地利用程度增加，人口数量减少，且前者增速更快）失调为主转变为以G类（土地利用程度增加，人口数量减少，且后者减少的速度更快）失调为主，东部地区协调程度高于西部。未来30年，不同情景下，近半数区县人口与土地利用的耦合失调现象依旧存在，并呈现动态调整趋势。东北黑土区人口收缩严重影响了土地利用，未来应以生态保护为指引，通过实施产业转型、耕地保护、人口安置等措施来有效应对人口收缩背景下的土地利用变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study focus on the black soil area in northeast China, based on the perspective of population contraction. This study explored the coupling characteristics of human land relationship and its temporal and spatial evolution law under different scenarios through the multi scenario prediction of future population and land use, so as to provide a decision basis for the sustainable use of regional land and scientific planning. The research methods included comprehensive index of land use degree, elasticity coefficient of human-land relationship, grey prediction model and PLUS model. The results showed that, during 2000—2020, the permanent population in the black soil region contracted significantly, especially in the north and southeast. The degree of land use showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. Although the comprehensive index level continued to improve, the further development was limited by the population contraction. The differences in land use under various scenarios in 2030 and 2050 were mainly reflected in three types of land, including cultivated land, woodland and construction land. The cultivated land protection scenario could effectively slow down the expansion trend of urban buildings, while the ecological protection scenario could effectively increase the area of ecological land, such as forest land and water area. The contradiction between economic development and ecological protection still needed to be balanced. In the past 20 years, the coupling between land use degree and population had shown an uncoordinated development trend, and the coupling type had changed from class H（land use degree increases, population decreases, and the former increases faster）imbalance to class G（land use degree increase, population decrease, and the latter decreases faster）imbalance. The coordination degree of the eastern region was higher than that of the western region. In the next 30 years, under different scenarios, the coupling imbalance between population and land use in nearly half of the districts and counties would still exist and show a dynamic adjustment trend. In conclusion, the population shrinkage in the black soil area of Northeast China has seriously affected land use. In the future, ecological protection should be used as a guide to effectively respond to land use changes in the context of population shrinkage by implementing measures such as industrial transformation, cultivated land protection, and population resettlement. |
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