|
| 基于粮食生产能力的耕地非粮化时空演变规律研究 |
| Research on the spatial-temporal evolution law of non-grain production of cultivated land based on grain production capacity |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-11 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0798 |
| 中文关键词: 耕地非粮化，粮食生产潜力，时空格局，弹性分区，粮食安全 |
| 英文关键词: non-grain production of cultivated land, grain production potential, spatial-temporal pattern, elastic zoning, food security |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（42171197） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 1387 |
| 全文下载次数: 895 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 耕地非粮化影响着粮食生产的可持续性。作为气候条件限制下耕地所能实现的最大粮食产量，粮食生产潜力能够反映区域的粮食生产能力情况。从粮食生产潜力角度出发分析耕地非粮化格局，可有效判别耕地非粮化的发展是否有利于粮食生产。本研究采用弹性系数法分析了耕地非粮化水平与粮食生产潜力的相对变化趋势，并通过设置反事实情景构建回归模型，探究耕地非粮化所引起的粮食生产总潜力损失及其对粮食产量的影响。研究发现，2000—2020年我国的耕地非粮化水平呈西北及东南高、东北及西南低的态势，非粮化程度持续加深的市域占40.2%，持续减轻的市域占23.6%，区域间耕地非粮化水平的差距进一步拉大。基于耕地非粮化水平与粮食生产潜力的弹性分区结果，我国耕地非粮化的发展未能适应粮食生产潜力的演变趋势，各类型区之间的转变对粮食生产造成负面影响。其中，发展区、衰退区及低效区的范围扩大，损耗区、过度区及优产区的范围缩小，多数损耗区向发展区转变，优产区逐渐向衰退区和低效区转变。2000、2010、2020年的粮食生产总潜力分别因耕地非粮化减少3.5×108、3.1×108、2.4×108 t，中南地区损失最多，西北地区损失最少。研究表明，粮食生产总潜力损失与实际粮食产量呈显著负相关，非粮化对粮食生产的影响不断加深，减少粮食生产总潜力损失将有利于粮食生产。依据粮食生产潜力的空间分布及变化趋势对各类型区的耕地非粮化水平进行调整，能够推动粮食稳产保供目标的实现，保障国家粮食安全。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The non-grain production of cultivated land（NGP）affects the sustainability of grain production. The grain production potential （GPP）is the maximum grain yield that can be achieved under climatic conditions, which can reflect the regional grain production capacity. Analyzing the pattern of NGP through the perspective of GPP helps determine whether these changes support or hinder grain production. This study used the elasticity coefficient method to examine relative change trends between the NGP and GPP. And by setting up counterfactual scenarios and constructing regression models, we explored the loss of total potential grain production（△TGP）caused by NGP and its impact on actual grain yield. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the level of NGP in China showed a trend of high in the northwest and southeast, low in the northeast and southwest. 40.2% of urban regions continued to deepen the degree of NGP, while 23.6% continued to reduce. The gap between regions in the level of NGP was further widened. Based on the elastic zoning results of the level of NGP and GPP, the development of NGP in China had failed to adapt to the evolution trend of GPP, and the changes between different types of zones had a negative impact on grain production. Among them, the scope of development zone, decline zone and inefficient zone expanded, and the scope of loss zone, excessive zone and superior production zone shrank. Most of loss zones had changed to development zones, and superior production zones had gradually changed to decline zones and inefficient zones. The △TGP of China in 2000, 2010 and 2020 decreased by 3.5×108, 3.1×108 t and 2.4×108 t due to the NGP, respectively, with the largest reduction in the central and southern regions and the smallest in the northwestern regions. The loss of △TGP was significantly negatively correlated with actual grain yield, and the impact of NGP on grain production continues to deepen. Reducing the loss of △TGP would be beneficial for grain production. Adjusting the level of NGP in various types of regions based on the spatial distribution and changing trends of GPP can promote the achievement of stable grain production and ensure national food security. |
| HTML
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
|
|
|
