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| 气候变化背景下非洲大蜗牛在福建省的适生性预测 |
| Prediction of habitat suitability for the Achatina fulic in Fujian province under climate change scenarios |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-28 修订日期：2026-03-02 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 外来入侵物种 非洲大蜗牛 MaxEnt模型 环境变量 适生区 |
| 英文关键词: Invasive species Achatina fulica MaxEnt model Environmental variables Suitable habitats |
| 基金项目:福建省科技厅引导性项目福建省外来生物非洲大蜗牛的入侵机制与扩散风险研究(2025N0019)Project supported: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 非洲大蜗牛(Achatina fulica)繁殖能力强、危害寄主广,是多种寄生虫和病原菌的传播媒介,严重威胁生态安全及人类健康。为明确气候变化背景下非洲大蜗牛在福建省的潜在入侵风险与生态分布,本研究通过实地调查,采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,结合气候数据,预测了当前与未来两阶段(2041—2060年、2061—2080年)下SSP126与SSP585两种排放情景的潜在分布。研究表明：模型预测结果的曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.954,预测结果精确。当前气候下,非洲大蜗牛在福建地区适生区面积为13751.6 km2,占全省总面积的11.09%,主要分布在厦门、漳州和泉州等闽南沿海地区。未来在气候变暖背景下,其适生区整体呈北移趋势,且在 2041—2060 年阶段迁移幅度最为显著,分布质心均向安溪县方向移动。尤其在 SSP585 情景下,高排放条件导致适生区范围显著扩大。研究结果可为研判非洲大蜗牛发生扩散趋势和指导防控提供依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Achatina fulica, known for its strong reproductive capacity and broad host range, acts as a vector for various parasites and pathogens, posing serious threats to ecological security and human health. To clarify the potential invasion risk and ecological distribution of A. fulica in Fujian Province under climate change, this study conducted field surveys and employed the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model combined with climate data to predict its potential distribution under current climate conditions and two future emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The results showed that the model performed well, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.954, indicating high prediction accuracy. Under the current climate, the suitable habitat area of A. fulica in Fujian reaches 13,751.6 km2, accounting for 11.09% of the total provincial area, and is primarily concentrated in the coastal regions of southern Fujian, including Xiamen, Zhangzhou, and Quanzhou. In the context of future warming, the suitable areas are projected to shift northward, with the most pronounced migration occurring during 2041–2060, where the distribution centroid shifts toward Anxi County. In particular, under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, the suitable habitat expands significantly. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing the spread risk of A. fulica and formulating targeted prevention and control strategies. |
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