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| 巴音郭楞蒙古自治州生态系统服务供需时空演变及权衡/协同关系 |
| Spatiotemporal evolution and trade-off / synergy of ecosystem services supply and demand in Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture |
| 投稿时间：2023-12-15 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2023.0813 |
| 中文关键词: 干旱区，生态系统服务，权衡，协同，土地利用，新疆 |
| 英文关键词: arid area, ecosystem service, trade-off, synergy, land use, Xinjiang |
| 基金项目:新疆干旱区水循环与水利用实验室开放课题（XJYS0907-2023-06） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探究干旱区生态系统服务（ES）供需时空演变格局，厘清供给与需求之间的权衡/协同关系，本研究以巴音郭楞蒙古自治州（巴州）为研究对象，运用当量因子法、双变量空间自相关等方法，分析该区域2000—2020年ES供需时空特征及权衡/协同状况。结果表明：2000—2020年巴州 ES总供给缩减了 719.91亿元，下降 11.89%，其中水域和林地供给分别下降 35.66%和 14.52%，其他地类供给变化不显著；ES高、较高需求区逐年增长，主要集中在库尔勒市及其周围地区；2005—2010年巴州北部高、较高盈余区分别减少了58.91%、34.60%；各项供给服务都具有显著协同关系，需求指标中仅人口密度-经济密度具有显著协同关系，供给-需求全局双变量Moran's I的指数为0.159，呈协同关系但显著性较弱。研究表明：巴州ES整体上供大于求，但存在显著供需空间错配现象，未来应制定有效的空间管理政策。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of ecosystem services（ES）supply and demand in arid areas and clarify the trade-off/synergy relationship between supply and demand, this study took Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture（Bazhou）as the research object and used the equivalent factor method and bivariate spatial autocorrelation to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and trade-off/synergy status of ES supply and demand in the region from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the total ES supply in Bazhou decreased by 71.991 billion yuan（a decrease of 11.89%）, with water and forest supply decreasing by 35.66% and 14.52%, respectively, while other land types showed no significant changes in supply. High and sub-high demand areas for ES had been increasing yearly, mainly concentrated in the city of Korla and its surrounding areas. From 2005 to 2010, the high and sub-high surplus areas in the northern part of Bazhou decreased by 58.91% and 34.60%, respectively; All supply services had a significant synergistic relationship, with only population density and economic density having a significant synergistic relationship in the demand indicators. Moran ' s I index of the global bivariate of supply demand was 0.159, showing a synergistic relationship but with weak significance. Research has shown that the overall supply of ES in Bazhou exceeds demand, but there is a significant spatial mismatch between supply and demand. In the future, effective spatial management policies should be formulated. |
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