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| 长沙市土地利用碳排放的时空演变特征及多情景模拟 |
| Spatial and temporal analysis and multi-scenario simulation of land use carbon emissions in Changsha City |
| 投稿时间：2023-12-12 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2023.0805 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用变化，多情景模拟，碳排放，GMOP模型，PLUS模型 |
| 英文关键词: land use change, multi-scenario simulation, carbon emission, GMOP model, PLUS model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金项目(U19A2051)；湖南省自然资源重大科技项目（湘自资科 20240101ST）；湖南省国内一流培育学科建设项目：地理学（5010002） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 土地利用对于生态系统碳循环以及人为碳排放具有重要影响，分析土地利用与碳排放的时空关联特征，探究多情景下两者的动态变化特征及规律，对于“双碳”目标下国土空间规划调整和生态系统保护具有重要意义。本研究基于2005—2020年长沙市土地利用与能源消耗数据，分析了长沙市土地利用变化以及碳排放的时空演变特征，并耦合 GMOP-PLUS模型，通过预设 3种发展情景（自然发展、经济优先、低碳导向），模拟了长沙市2035年土地利用格局和碳排放的空间分布。结果表明：2005—2020年间耕地与林地为长沙市土地利用变化主要类型，居民点及商服用地布局趋于稳定，工矿用地扩张态势明显。土地利用碳排放增速逐渐放缓，15年间增长了952.03万t，空间上表现出明显的中部高、东西部低的分布特征，居民点及商服用地和土矿用地两大建设用地内部的碳排放强度差异逐渐减弱。三种情景下长沙市2035年碳排放均存在不同程度的增加，社会经济因素特别是交通条件对于两大建设用地驱动作用显著，高程、降水等自然地理因素则对耕地、林地和草地等生态用地影响更强。未来应以低碳发展为导向，综合考虑经济与生态效益，加强土地节约集约利用，合理规划交通线路，实现人地关系的协调发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Land use has an important impact on ecosystem carbon cycles and anthropogenic carbon emissions. Analyzing the spatial and temporal correlation characteristics of land use and carbon emissions and exploring the dynamic characteristics and rules of land use and carbon emissions under different scenarios are of great significance for the adjustment of land planning and ecosystem protection. This study based on land use and energy data of Changsha City from 2005 to 2020 where the total carbon emissions from land use were measured, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics were explored. Considering three future development scenarios（natural development, economy priority, and low-carbon oriented）GMOP and PLUS models were integrated to simulate the spatial distribution of land use carbon emissions of Changsha City in 2035. The results showed that cultivated and forested land constituted the main land use type changes in Changsha City from 2005 to 2020, the spatial layout of residential and commercial land tended to be stable, and the expansion trend of industrial land was obvious. The carbon emissions of land use demonstrated a weakening upward trend with a growth of 9.520 3×106 t in the last 15 years, and the spatial distribution of carbon emissions tended to be high in the middle and low in the east and west. Carbon emission intensity differences of residential/ commercial land and industrial land has gradually weakened. Under the three scenarios, the carbon emissions of Changsha City in 2035 showed a varying degree of increases compared with 2020, mainly caused by the expansion of industrial land. Socio-economic factors, especially traffic lines, have a significant driving effect on residential/ commercial land as well as industrial land, while natural factors such as elevation and precipitation have a distinct influence on ecological land type such as cultivated forest land and grassland. In the future, low-carbon development should be prioritized, economic and ecological benefits comprehensively considered, economical and intensive use of land strengthened, transportation routes rationally planned, and the coordinated development of human-land relationships realized. |
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