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| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的长江流域生态系统碳储量时空演变模拟与预测 |
| Simulation and prediction of spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem carbon storage in the Yangtze River basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model |
| 投稿时间：2023-12-29 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2023.0841 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用变化，碳储量，InVEST模型，PLUS模型，长江流域，SSP-RCP情景 |
| 英文关键词: land use change, carbon storage, InVEST model, PLUS model, Yangtze River basin, SSP-RCP scenario |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFD1700900）；河南省科技攻关项目（222102320041）；2022年河南省高等学校智库研究项目（2022ZKYJ07）；河南农业大学拔尖人才项目（30501031） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 陆地生态系统的碳储量会随着土地利用情况的变化而发生改变，探讨区域陆地生态系统土地利用变化对碳储量的影响以及碳储量的时空变化规律，对未来土地管理决策和生态系统的平衡具有重要意义。本研究以长江流域为例，基于1980—2020年5期的土地利用数据，在PLUS模型中利用修正后的土地利用数据分别模拟了SSP1-1.9、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种情景下2030—2050年土地利用分布格局，并运用InVEST模型采用修正后的碳密度定量评估不同SSP-RCP情景下2030—2050年陆地生态系统碳储量的空间变化。结果表明：1980—2020年耕地面积占比减少1.12个百分点，耕地部分转化为林地、建设用地，2020年长江流域碳储量相比于1980年降低5.43×107 t。在SSP系列三种情景下未利用地面积均减少，其中SSP1-1.9情景下未利用地面积减量最多，减少了9.12×105 hm2，而建设用地面积在三种情景下均上升。2030—2050年间，SSP1-1.9情景下碳储量增加2.22×108 t，而其他情景碳储量均下降。研究表明，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下长江流域碳储量均呈下降趋势，应加强土地的高效利用及绿色基础设施建设，提高流域内生态系统碳汇能力。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems changes with the change of land utilization. Studying the impact of land use change on carbon storage and the temporal and spatial variation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is important for future land management decisions and ecosystem balance. Taking the Yangtze River basin as an example, based on the land use data of five periods from 1980 to 2020, the modified land use data were used in the PLUS model to simulate the land utilization spatial pattern from 2030 to 2050 under the three scenarios of SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Furthermore, the InVEST model was used to quantitatively evaluate the spatial changes of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in 2030—2050 under different SSP-RCP scenarios by using the modified carbon density. The results showed that the proportion of cultivated land area decreased by 1.12 percentage points from 1980 to 2020, and some of the cultivated lands were converted into forest land and construction land. The carbon storage of the Yangtze River basin decreased by 5.43×107 t in 2020 compared with 1980. The SSP series scenarios showed that the area of unused land resources decreased, while the area of unused land resources in the SSP1-1.9 scenario decreased by 9.12×105 hm2. However, the area of construction land increased in all three scenarios. From 2030 to 2050, carbon storage increased by 2.22×108 t under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, but decreased under other scenarios; it decreased under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The Yangtze River basin should strengthen the efficient use of land and the construction of green infrastructure to improve the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem in the basin. |
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