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| 东北黑土区人口收缩视域下土地利用时空演化及多情景预测研究 |
| Study on spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of land use in black soil area of Northeast China from the perspective of population shrinkage |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-04 修订日期：2025-05-24 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用 人地关系 东北黑土区 PLUS模型 |
| 英文关键词: land use man-land relationship black soil area in Northeast China PLUS model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(42471240) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 38 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】本研究聚焦东北黑土区,旨在揭示人口收缩背景下土地利用时空演变规律及人地关系特征,为区域土地可持续利用和科学规划提供决策依据。【方法】土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用程度综合指数、人地关系弹性系数、PLUS模型。【结果】(1)研究期内,黑土区常住人口显著收缩,尤以北部和东南部为甚,导致耕地、林地、草地的频繁转化及建设用地的扩张,未利用地变化与草地转化密切相关。(2)土地利用程度呈东南高西北低的空间分布格局,尽管综合指数水平持续提高,但因人口收缩限制了进一步发展。(3)过去20年土地利用程度与人口数量耦合呈现不协调发展态势,耦合类型由以H类(土地利用程度增加,人口数量减少,且前者增速更快)失调为主转变为以G类(土地利用程度增加,人口数量减少,且后者减少的速度更快)失调为主。东部地区协调程度高于西部。(4)目标年份多种情景下土地利用差异主要体现在耕地、林地、建设用地三类用地,耕地保护情景能够有效减缓城市建筑的扩张趋势,生态保护情景则可有效增加林地、水域等生态类用地面积,经济发展与生态保护之间的矛盾仍需平衡。【结论】东北黑土区人口收缩严重影响了土地利用,未来应以生态保护为指引,通过实施产业转型、耕地保护、人口安置等措施以有效应对人口收缩背景下的土地利用变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The purpose of this study is to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of land use and the characteristics of man-land relationship in the black soil area of Northeast China under the background of population shrinkage, and to provide decision-making basis for sustainable land use and scientific planning. The research methods include transfer matrix, comprehensive index of land use degree, elasticity coefficient of man-land relationship and PLUS model. The research results show that: 1) During the study period, the resident population of the black soil area contracted significantly, especially in the northern and southeastern parts of the area, which led to the frequent conversion of cultivated land, forest land and grassland and the expansion of construction land, and the change of the unutilized land was closely related to the conversion of grassland. 2) The spatial distribution of the degree of land use showed a spatial distribution pattern with a high degree of land use in the southeast and a low degree of land use in the northwest, and although the level of the composite index increased, the population contracted, limiting the development of the area. 3) In the past 20 years, the coupling between land use degree and population has shown an uncoordinated development trend, and the coupling type has changed from H (land use increase, population decrease, and the former is growing faster) imbalance to G (land use degree increases, population decreases, and the latter decreases faster) imbalance. The degree of coordination in the eastern region is higher than that in the western region. 4) The land use differences in various scenarios in the target year are mainly reflected in three types of land: cultivated land, forest land and construction land. The cultivated land protection scenario can effectively slow down the expansion trend of urban buildings, while the ecological protection scenario can effectively increase the area of ecological land such as forest land and water area. The contradiction between economic development and ecological protection still needs to be balanced. In conclusion, the population shrinkage in the black soil region of Northeast China has seriously affected land use. In the future, ecological protection should be used as a guide to effectively respond to land use changes in the context of population shrinkage by implementing measures such as industrial transformation, cultivated land protection, and population resettlement. |
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