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| 1988—2020年新疆棉花生产格局与贡献因素 |
| Cotton production pattern and contribution factors in Xinjiang from 1988 to 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2023-08-09 修订日期：2023-11-22 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2023.0511 |
| 中文关键词: 棉花生产，时空格局，棉花增产，贡献因素，新疆 |
| 英文关键词: cotton production, spatial-temporal pattern, cotton yield increase, contribution factors, Xinjiang |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（42107480）；河南省高等学校青年骨干教师项目（2020GGJS188）；河南省哲学社会科学规划项目（2022BJJ003）；河南省科技攻关项目（232102320024）；安阳市科技发展计划项目（2022C01NY019;2021C01NY035） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为摸清新疆棉花生产变化与增产格局，本研究基于1988—2020年新疆棉花生产相关数据，运用数理统计和重心模型等方法对新疆棉花生产时空格局进行分析，探讨了棉花增产格局与贡献因素。结果表明，1988年以来新疆棉花生产变化呈现两个阶段：波动增长时期（1988—2014年），棉花产量由17.12万t增至337.85万t，种植面积由22.13万hm2增至197.00万hm2；波动下降时期（2015—2020年），棉花产量波动降至302.70万t，种植面积减至163.67万hm2。1988—2020年，新疆大部分地市棉花产量、种植面积和单产显著增加，但各地差异明显，南疆在新疆棉花生产中地位突出，阿克苏、喀什和巴音郭楞三地对新疆棉花增产贡献为65.43%。北疆和东疆哈密棉花产量增速快于南疆地区，致使棉花生产重心向东北方向迁移300.96 km，由喀什迁移至阿克苏。从贡献因素看，新疆棉花增产主要为种植面积主导（74.61%），未来新疆应将提高棉花单产作为保障棉花产量的主要途径。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To understand the changes in cotton production and the yield increase pattern in Xinjiang, mathematical statistics and gravity center models were used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of cotton production. The pattern and contribution factors of cotton yield increase were discussed based on relevant data from 1988 to 2020. The variation in cotton production in Xinjiang since 1988 showed two stages. The first was an upward fluctuating period（1988—2014）, where cotton yield increased from 1.712×105 t to 3.378×106 t, and the planted area increased from 2.213×105 hm2 to 1.970×106 hm2. During the second period of fluctuating decline（2015—2020）, the cotton yield decreased to 3.027×106 t, and the planted area decreased to 1.637×106 hm2. From 1988 to 2020, the cotton production, planted area, and yield in most cities and regions of Xinjiang significantly increased, but there were significant differences among regions. Southern Xinjiang had a prominent position in cotton production, with Aksu, Kashgar, and Bayingolin contributing 65.43% to the increase of cotton yield in Xinjiang. The increase rate in cotton production of Hami in eastern and northern Xinjiang was faster than that in southern Xinjiang, relocating the gravity center of cotton production to the northeast by 300.96 km, from Kashgar to Aksu. The increase in cotton production in Xinjiang was mainly led by the planted area（74.61%）. In the future, Xinjiang should consider increasing cotton yield per unit area as the main way to ensure cotton yield. |
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