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| 基于农户行为视角的农业支持保护补贴政策对耕地抛荒的潜在影响研究 |
| Potential impact of the agricultural support and protection subsidy policy on the abandonment of cultivated land from the perspective of farmers′ behavior |
| 投稿时间：2022-12-21 修订日期：2023-03-24 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2022.0895 |
| 中文关键词: 农业支持保护补贴政策，耕地抛荒，耕地流转，农户行为 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural support and protection subsidy policy, abandoned cultivated land, cultivated land circulation, farmers ′ behavior |
| 基金项目:贵州省哲学社会科学规划办公室重大专项课题 (21GZZB15) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 20世纪80年代开始，我国出现大规模耕地抛荒，通过政策手段有效约束和引导农户行为，是解决耕地抛荒问题的关键。2016年原农业“三项补贴”政策改革为农业支持保护补贴政策，改革后的农业支持保护补贴政策涉及耕地数量保护、耕地适度规模经营等多个方面，可对耕地抛荒产生一定影响。为评价农业支持保护补贴政策对耕地抛荒的影响，本研究基于农户行为视角，构建了农户耕地抛荒的行为解释模型。模型包括（拟）退出农业生产的农户（农地转出方）和农地转入方两类行为主体，以及是否退出农业生产和耕地处置两个决策节点。基于该模型采用情景分析、逻辑推理等方法研究了农业支持保护补贴政策在不同决策节点对不同行为主体的影响，进而分析了政策实施可能对耕地抛荒产生的影响。研究发现，该政策的实施不会影响农户是否退出农业生产的决策，但会对耕地流转产生积极的影响。总体来看，农业支持保护补贴政策的实施有利于促进耕地保护，遏制耕地抛荒。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Large-scale abandonment of cultivated land began in China in the 1980s. Restricting and guiding farmers' behavior with policies is crucial for reducing cultivated land abandonment. In 2016, China reformed the three agricultural subsidy policies into the agricultural support and protection subsidy policy. The reformed policy involved the protection and appropriate scale management of cultivated land, which will impact the abandonment of cultivated land. Therefore, from the perspective of farmers' behavior, this study constructed a logical model to explain the farmers' behavior in terms of farmland abandonment. The model included two types of actors and two important decision nodes. Based on this model, this study used scenario analysis, logical reasoning, and other methods to investigate the impact of the agricultural support and protection subsidy policy on different actors at different decision-making nodes, and analyzed the possible impact of policy implementation on farmland abandonment. It was determined that, although the implementation of this policy cannot affect whether farmers will withdraw from agricultural production, it could positively impact the circulation of cultivated land. In general, the implementation of the agricultural support and protection subsidy policy is conducive to promoting cultivated land protection and curbing cultivated land abandonment. |
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