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| 多情景土地利用变化下武汉城市圈生态系统服务权衡协同研究 |
| Ecosystem service tradeoffs in Wuhan metropolitan area under multi-scenario land use change |
| 投稿时间：2022-05-19 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2022.0308 |
| 中文关键词: 生态系统服务，FLUS模型，权衡协同，多情景模拟，武汉城市圈 |
| 英文关键词: ecosystem services, FLUS model, trade-off synergy, multi-scenario simulation, Wuhan metropolitan area |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41601210） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1975 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于多目标情景模拟土地利用格局，定量评估生态系统服务权衡协同关系及总体发展趋势，有助于生态系统服务管理策略的制定，从而提升区域生态和人居环境质量。本研究以武汉城市圈为例，借助GIS（地理信息系统）和InVEST模型对2005—2020年生态系统粮食供给、固碳、土壤保持、产水和氮保持进行定量评估，基于FLUS耦合模型模拟2035年自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护3种情景下生态系统服务，并评估其权衡协同关系。结果表明： 2005—2020年武汉城市圈建设用地和水域分别增长1 126.59 km2和72.67 km2，耕地、林地、草地和未利用地分别减少1 019.56、125.62、14.77 km2和39.31 km2，耕地保护和生态保护情景下建设用地增长率远低于自然发展情景，建设用地扩张程度受到遏制； 2005—2020年粮食供给、土壤保持、产水和氮保持服务能力增强，固碳服务能力下降；自然发展情景下产水服务最佳，耕地保护情景下氮保持和土壤保持服务能力显著下降，生态系统服务间权衡效应增强，生态保护情景下固碳、土壤保持和氮保持服务均处于最佳态势，除粮食供给与固碳服务外其他生态系统服务间权衡效应均得到优化，生态系统服务价值较自然发展情景和耕地保护情景下分别增加3.54亿元和4.69亿元。因此，在未来国土空间规划和管理中，应坚持生态优先战略，妥善处理好“三线”划定问题，优化土地资源配置，实现经济与生态文明的协调发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on multiobjective scenarios to simulate land use patterns, we quantitatively assessed the synergistic relationships of ecosystem service trade-offs and overall development trends. Our findings help with formulating ecosystem service management strategies to improve the quality of the regional ecology and the human habitat. Taking Wuhan metropolitan area as an example, we used GIS and InVEST models to quantitatively assess grain provision, carbon storage, soil conservation, water yield, and nitrogen retention during 2005 to 2020. We also used the FLUS coupled model to simulate the ecosystem services under three scenarios of natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2035 and assess their trade-off synergies. The results showed that the construction land and water areas increased by 1 126.59 km2 and 72.67 km2, respectively, in Wuhan metropolitan area from 2005 to 2020, while the cultivated land, forest land, grass land and unused land areas increased by 1 019.56, 125.62, 14.77 km2, and 39.31 km2, respectively. The growth rate of construction land under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios will be much lower than under the natural development scenario, and the expansion of construction land will be curbed. From 2005 to 2020, the capacity of grain provision, soil conservation, water yield, and nitrogen retention increased and the carbon storage capacity decreased. Water yield services will be best under the natural development scenario, nitrogen retention and soil conservation services will be substantially reduced under the cultivated land protection scenario, and trade-off effects between ecosystem services will be enhanced. In the ecological protection scenario, the carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and nitrogen conservation services will be the strongest, and the trade-off effects between other ecosystem services, except for grain provision and carbon storage, will be optimized. Compared with the natural development and cultivated land protection scenarios, the ecosystem service value under the ecological protection scenario, will increase by CNY 354 million and CNY 469 million, respectively. Therefore, for territorial spatial planning and management, we should adhere to the ecological priority strategy, properly handle the three-line demarcation problem, optimize the allocation of land resources, and realize the coordinated development of economics and ecological civilization construction. |
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