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| Responses of runoff and sediment to land use change in the Ankang section of the Han River basin |
| Received:October 16, 2024 |
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| KeyWord:land use;SWAT;GeoSOS FLUS;runoff volume;sediment load |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | LIU Wendan | Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049, China | | | WU Yiping | Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049, China | rocky.ypwu@gmail.com | | KIVALOV Sergey | Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science, Pushchino 142290, Russia | | | ALEXANDROV Georgii | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 119017, Russia | |
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| Abstract: |
| This study focuses on the Ankang section of the Han River basin to investigate the response of basin runoff and sediment volume to changes in land use. Data on land use for three periods（2001, 2010, and 2022）were collected, and three scenarios（inertial development, economic prioritization, and ecological preservation）were projected for 2034 using the SWAT in conjunction with the GeoSOS-FLUS. By integrating six phases of land use data and meteorological data from 2001 to 2022, we quantitatively analyzed the changes in runoff and sediment volume under different land use scenarios. The results showed that：the runoff calibration results from the three hydrological stations in the basin（Wuhou Town, Shiquan, and Ankang）were satisfactory, with r2 greater than or equal to 0.88, NSE values greater than or equal to 0.85, and |PBIAS| less than or equal to 20%. The calibration results for sediment were also acceptable, with r2 values greater than or equal to 0.60, NSE values greater than or equal to 0.50, and |PBIAS| less than or equal to 25%. Forest land predominated from 2001 to 2022, with relatively minor changes in land type. The rate of change from 2001 to 2010 was slightly higher than that from 2010 to 2022. The area of construction land increased at a rate of 5.62% per year. The primary land use changes during the study period involved the conversion of cropland and forest land to one another, the transformation of grassland into forest land, and the transition of farmland to construction land. The Kappa coefficient for the accuracy validation of the GeoSOS-FLUS model was 79.22%, and the overall simulation accuracy was 91.31%. This model was ultimately employed to predict land use in 2034 under three scenarios：inertial development, priority economy, and ecological protection. The results of the scenario analysis indicated that land use changes from 2001 to 2022 led to a decreasing trend in average annual runoff and sediment yield in the watershed. Among the future scenarios, the ecological protection land use scenario in 2034 produced the least runoff and sediment. The runoff and sediment yield from June to October accounted for approximately 80% and 90% of the annual totals, respectively. The water production per unit area of the basin exhibited a pattern of being high in the upper and lower reaches and low in the middle reaches, while sediment production per unit area was high in the middle and lower reaches. Significant changes in streamflow and sediment production were concentrated in the middle of the basin. Most sub-basins under the 2034 priority economic land use scenario showed an increase in streamflow and sediment production compared to the inertial development scenario, whereas the ecological protection scenario exhibited the opposite trend. Notably, the rate of change in sediment production was more pronounced than that in streamflow production. |
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