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| Scenario-based simulation analysis of cropland dynamics and ecosystem carbon stock in the Yellow River basin |
| Received:October 28, 2024 |
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| KeyWord:land use;spatial pattern of cropland;carbon stock;PLUS model;multi-scenario simulation |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | ZHENG Yu | Henan Key Laboratory of Spatial Information Application on Eco-Environmental Protection, Zhengzhou 450046, China | | | ZHANG Ming | Henan Fangda Space Information Technology Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China | | | REN Jie | State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China | | | ZHANG Bolun | State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China | chamberlian19@163.com | | LIU Tiantian | Henan Fangda Space Information Technology Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China | | | WANG Yizhe | State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China | | | SHEN Chen | State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China | longsc2012@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| To investigate the impact of farmland changes on ecosystem carbon storage, this study focused on the Yellow River basin and employed the PLUS and InVEST models to assess the effects of farmland use changes on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the basin from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the study examined carbon storage projections for 2030 under three different scenarios：natural development, ecological protection, and farmland protection. The results revealed that the prediction model developed in this study achieved an accuracy rate of 88%, with robust classification accuracy and high reliability. Between 2000 and 2020, the Yellow River basin lost 22 294 km2 of farmland, with significant resource depletion and insufficient replenishment. By 2030, under the ecological protection and farmland protection scenarios, farmland loss was projected to decrease by 3 001 km2 and 2 086 km2, respectively, indicating a reduction in farmland loss. Under both protection scenarios, ecological carbon storage increased by 4.32 × 107 Mg and 4.39 × 107 Mg, respectively. These findings highlight that, while farmland protection measures were implemented, regional carbon storage continued to rise. The study also revealed significant regional disparities in topography, hydrology, meteorology, and economic development across the Yellow River basin, with land use changes primarily driven by local policies and influenced by various human factors. |
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