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| Multi-scenario land use change simulation prediction and carbon stock assessment along the south bank of Dianchi Lake based on PLUS-InVEST model |
| Received:March 28, 2025 |
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| KeyWord:land use change;carbon stock;PLUS-InVEST model;driving factor;Dianchi Lake south bank |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | MA Pengxiang | College of Resources and Environment, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China | | | DAO Chengjiao | College of Resources and Environment, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China | | | DU Lingpan | Yunnan Phosphorus Chemical Group Co., Ltd., Kunming 650607, China | | | XIAO Yanan | Yunnan Phosphorus Chemical Group Co., Ltd., Kunming 650607, China | | | HUANG Zekai | College of Resources and Environment, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China | | | YAN Kai | College of Resources and Environment, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China | ecoyankai@126.com | | BAO Li | College of Resources and Environment, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China | bbllty@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| To investigate the impacts of land use change on carbon stock along the south bank of Dianchi Lake, this study coupled the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate land use change trends from 1990 to 2034, evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon stock under multi-scenario predictions, and analyze the mechanisms of natural and socio-economic driving factors. The results indicated that: From 1990 to 2024, mining land and construction land expanded by 345.0% and 230.0%, respectively, leading to a carbon stock reduction of 2.621×105 t, while forest land increased by 5.2%, contributing to a carbon stock recovery of 3.47×104 t. Transportation accessibility and GDP growth were the dominant drivers of regional carbon loss, causing a peak carbon loss of 3.153×105 t during 2000—2010. In future scenarios for 2034, the ecological protection scenario achieved the highest carbon stock(6.273 6×106 t)but faced a total arable land loss of 6.44 km2, whereas the urban development scenario resulted in the lowest carbon stock(6.150 3×106 t), with mining and construction land expansion driving a carbon loss of 1.233×105 t. Carbon loss in the Dianchi Lake south bank is primarily driven by the conversion of highcarbon-density land to low-carbon-density land. To promote regional sustainable development, it is imperative to balance cropland protection with ecological restoration and strictly restrict high-intensity development. |
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