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| Improvement of methodology and uncertainty analysis for potential ecological risks assessment of heavy metals in agricultural soils around typical industrial and mining sites |
| Received:February 11, 2025 Revised:April 14, 2025 |
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| KeyWord:agricultural soil;heavy metal pollution;ecological risk assessment;model improvement;uncertainty analysis |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | LU Hefeng | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Xingtai Ecological Environment Comprehensive Law Enforcement Detachment, Xingtai 054001, China | | | WANG Zixiang | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China | | | ZHANG Youjun | Tianjin North China Geological Exploration Institute, Tianjin 300170, China | | | YAN Xiulan | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China | | | YANG Xiao | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China | yangx@igsnrr.ac.cn | | SHI Biling | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China | | | WANG Dening | China Oil & Gas Pipeline Network Corporation, Beijing 100028, China | | | CONG Hui | Tianjin North China Geological Exploration Institute, Tianjin 300170, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to accurately assess the potential ecological risk of heavy metals in farmland in a strongly heterogeneous area. This study selected farmland soils near industrial and mining sites in Xuanhua District, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, as the research object. Using measured concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn in soil samples, the potential ecological risk posed by these heavy metals was evaluated with three approaches: the traditional deterministic Hakanson ecological risk model (TCM), and two coupled models: TCM integrated with Monte Carlo simulation and bias correction(MCS-COR), and TCM integrated with Monte Carlo simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers (MCS-TFN). The differences in model results were analyzed from the perspectives of result uncertainty and model stability to determine the optimal assessment method. Compared with TCM, both MCS-COR and MCS-TFN models can effectively reduce the uncertainty of the assessment results from 281% to 209% and 118%, respectively, and the MCS-COR model performs better in terms of model stability, with the relative bias between the training set and validation set less than 20%. The study shows that MCS-COR is more suitable for risk evaluation of skewed normal distribution data. The comprehensive ecological risk level of the region was medium risk, in which the potential ecological risk of Cd was the strongest, which was mainly distributed in medium risk（46.03%）and stronger risk （24.98%）; followed by Hg, which was medium risk（29.87%）and stronger risk（21.95%）; while the ecological risks of Pb, Cu and Zn were small, with 99.99% probability of slight risk. |
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