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| Study on evolutionary characteristics of climate production potential for major grain crops in the North China Plain under SSP scenarios |
| Received:January 21, 2025 Revised:August 11, 2025 |
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| KeyWord:climate production potential;the North China Plain;climate change;food security |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | XIE Xiaoliang | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China
Changsha Social Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence, Changsha 410205, China | | | TANG Chang | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China
Changsha Social Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence, Changsha 410205, China | tangchang@stu.hutb.edu.cn | | XIAO Meng | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China
Changsha Social Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence, Changsha 410205, China | | | QI Zihan | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China | | | ZHOU Shengchun | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| This study is based on five global climate models（GCM）and three SSP scenarios（SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0）. We use the estimation system for land productivity（ESLP）model to estimate the climate production potential（CPP）of wheat, maize, and rice in the North China Plain（covering five provinces and two cities）under future scenarios（2025—2050）. Linear slope and Mann-Kendall trend tests, along with ArcGIS spatial analysis, are employed to analyze the interannual trend and spatial distribution characteristics. Comparisons are made against the historical baseline period（1990—2014）. Compared with the baseline period, under future scenarios the inter-annual mean CPP of maize increases by 22.32% - 37.46%, that of rice by 28.78% - 39.11%, while wheat changes by – 9.18% to 4.24%. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios all three crops exhibit increased CPP; however, under SSP3-7.0 the CPP of wheat declines. From the spatial variation perspective, the distribution of maize CPP is similar to that of the historical baseline period, decreasing from north to south, with significant differences between the northern and southern regions. Wheat CPP shifts from a north-south decreasing pattern to a southeast-northwest decreasing pattern. Rice CPP transitions from a north-south pattern in the baseline to a southwest-northeast decreasing trend in the future, with a broader high-value area. In future climate change scenarios, moisture will be the dominant factor controlling the CPP of maize. By contrast, temperature constitutes the single most influential climatic variable affecting wheat production potential. For rice, the combined effects of solar radiation and moisture jointly govern changes in its CPP. Elevated temperatures tend to diminish the positive contributions of moisture and radiation to maize and wheat CPP, yet they enhance the beneficial effects of these factors on rice CPP.Future climate change will significantly impact the CPP of different grain crops in the North China Plain, with marked regional spatial differences. Optimized agricultural management measures to adapt to climate change will be crucial. |
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