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| Study on runoff response and ecological water demand under climate change in the Qarqan River basin |
| Received:October 16, 2024 |
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| KeyWord:climate change;non-parametric testing;continuity analysis;related analysis;ecological water demand;Qarqan River |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | WEI Guanghui | School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Bureau of Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Management, Korla 841000, China | | | HONG Liangpeng | Bureau of Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Management, Korla 841000, China | | | WANG Luyang | Bureau of Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Management, Korla 841000, China | | | LIU Feng | School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China | 23539583@qq.com |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the runoff, temperature, and precipitation data of the Qarqan River in Xinjiang over the past 60 years, this study systematically explores the runoff response characteristics under climate change and the guarantee degree of ecological water demand in the basin by using classical theoretical methods such as non-parametric test, R/S analysis, and wavelet analysis. The results show that：over the past 60 years, runoff and temperature have shown a significant increasing trend, while the change in precipitation has been insignificant; the abrupt change years of runoff and temperature are 2000 and 1997 respectively, and the abrupt change point of precipitation cannot be determined; the Hurst indices（H）of runoff, temperature, and precipitation are 0.751 4, 0.961 9, and 0.732 3 respectively, all of which are greater than 0.5, indicating that runoff and temperature will continue to increase in the future, and precipitation will also continue to show uncertain changes; runoff mainly has change cycles of 21, 12, and 4 years, temperature mainly has change cycles of 7, 11, and 25 years, and precipitation mainly has change cycles of 6 and 28 years; Spearman correlation analysis shows that the correlation between runoff and temperature, as well as between runoff and precipitation, is closely related; the ecological water demand of the basin is 3.58×108 m3, and after deducting the production water demand, the ecological water demand is fully guaranteed under the condition of multi-year average. |
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