|
| Analysis of the temporal characteristics and carbon peak path of agricultural carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region |
| Received:December 01, 2024 |
| View Full Text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| KeyWord:agricultural carbon emissions;STIRPAT model;scenario analysis;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | FAN Peng | College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University/Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China | | | SHEN Baoshou | College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University/Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China
Carbon Neutrality College(Yulin), Northwest University/Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Carbon Neutral Technology, Xi'an 710127, China | bsshen@nwu.edu.cn | | QIU Zijian | School of Environmental Engineering and Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China | | | GUO Zhongming | College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University/Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China | | | MA Yuan | College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University/Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China
Carbon Neutrality College(Yulin), Northwest University/Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Carbon Neutral Technology, Xi'an 710127, China | | | ZHANG Dongwei | School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Mongolian Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Hohhot 024000, China | | | CHU Shaohua | School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Mongolian Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Hohhot 024000, China | | | ZHANG Dan | School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Mongolian Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Hohhot 024000, China | | | ZHOU Pei | School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Mongolian Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Hohhot 024000, China | | | WEN Chong | Xi'an Academy of Environmental Protection Science, Xi'an 710061, China | | | CHEN Fangjuan | Xi'an Academy of Environmental Protection Science, Xi'an 710061, China | | | SHEN Weishou | School of Environmental Engineering and Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China | wsshen@nuist.edu.cn |
|
| Hits: 1019 |
| Download times: 700 |
| Abstract: |
| This study investigates the temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and potential pathways for achieving carbon peaking in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, while proposing policy recommendations to support low-carbon agricultural development. Utilizing the emission factor approach, we quantified agricultural carbon emissions from 2000 to 2022 and employed the STIRPAT （Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology）model to project emission trends for 2000—2022. Scenario analysis was conducted to compare baseline and low-carbon development patterns. The results demonstrate that total agricultural carbon emissions exhibited a fluctuating upward trend during 2000—2022, while emission intensity showed substantial reduction. Crop cultivation emissions primarily originated from chemical fertilizer application, whereas livestock production emissions were dominated by enteric fermentation. Projections reveal that baseline conditions would lead to continuous emission growth reaching 51.61 million tons by 2030. Under the low-carbon scenario, emissions are expected to peak at 48.63 million tons in 2025 followed by gradual decline, achieving a 5.9% reduction compared to baseline projections by 2030. Strategic recommendations emphasize production pattern optimization, organic fertilizer promotion, and enhanced policy support to facilitate low-carbon transformation in Inner Mongolia's agricultural sector. The research concludes that synergistic implementation of technological innovation and policy interventions could unlock substantial emission reduction potential, it is expected to provide a role for the transformation of low-carbon agriculture across the country. |
|
|
|
