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| Construction of a prediction model for ciprofloxacin exposure level in aquaculture pond environment based on stepwise regression model |
| Received:December 23, 2024 |
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| KeyWord:ciprofloxacin;enrofloxacin;regression model;prediction model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | GAO Yuxiao | Wuxi Fisheries College, Nanjing Agricultural University, Wuxi 214081, China | | | CHEN Xi | Freshwater Fisheries Research Center, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Laboratory of Quality & Safety Risk Assessment for Aquatic Products on Environmental FactorsWuxi, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Open Laboratory of Inland Fishery Ecological Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Laboratory of Control of Quality and Safety for Aquatic Products, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100141, China | | | MA Zhiyuan | Wuxi Fisheries College, Nanjing Agricultural University, Wuxi 214081, China | | | FANG Longxiang | Freshwater Fisheries Research Center, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Laboratory of Quality & Safety Risk Assessment for Aquatic Products on Environmental FactorsWuxi, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Open Laboratory of Inland Fishery Ecological Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Laboratory of Control of Quality and Safety for Aquatic Products, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100141, China | | | QIU Liping | Freshwater Fisheries Research Center, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Laboratory of Quality & Safety Risk Assessment for Aquatic Products on Environmental FactorsWuxi, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Open Laboratory of Inland Fishery Ecological Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Laboratory of Control of Quality and Safety for Aquatic Products, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100141, China | | | MENG Shunlong | Laboratory of Quality & Safety Risk Assessment for Aquatic Products on Environmental FactorsWuxi, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Open Laboratory of Inland Fishery Ecological Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Laboratory of Control of Quality and Safety for Aquatic Products, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100141, China | mengsl@ffrc.cn | | SONG Chao | Laboratory of Quality & Safety Risk Assessment for Aquatic Products on Environmental FactorsWuxi, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Open Laboratory of Inland Fishery Ecological Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuxi 214081, China
Key Laboratory of Control of Quality and Safety for Aquatic Products, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100141, China | songc@ffrc.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| This study aims to achieve short-term prediction of ciprofloxacin（CIP）residue levels in aquaculture pond water. Highperformance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry（HPLC-MS / MS）was employed to analyze the residues of enrofloxacin （ENR）and CIP in water and sediment samples collected from aquaculture ponds in the Taihu Lake basin. Through comprehensive data analysis, this study revealed significant linear correlations between ENR and CIP concentrations in both pond water and sediment matrices. Furthermore, we systematically investigated the interactions between key physicochemical parameters（temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and permanganate index）and the following four processes：（1）the relationship between sediment ENR and CIP concentrations;（2）the correlation between water column ENR and CIP levels;（3）the interaction between water column ENR and sediment ENR concentrations; and（4）the association between sediment CIP and water column CIP levels. Through meticulous variable selection and calculation, a predictive model for CIP concentration in sediments was established：C(sed)CIP= 0.647 + 0.191C(sed)ENR - 1.358CTP, with a correlation coefficient（R）of 0.805, indicating its predictive value. Additionally, a predictive model for CIP concentration in pond water based on sediment CIP content was formulated：C(wat)CIP = ?0.413 - 0.017C(sed)CIP- 0.063A + 0.174B with a correlation coefficient R of 0.646, demonstrating good predictive accuracy. The development of these models provides technical support for the effective monitoring of CIP residue levels in aquaculture pond water. By the CIP content in sediments, an estimation of CIP levels in the pond water can be achieved. |
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