| 谢小良,唐畅,肖梦,齐子涵,周升春.SSP情景下华北平原主要粮食作物气候生产潜力演变特征研究[J].农业环境科学学报,2026,45(2):301-318. |
| SSP情景下华北平原主要粮食作物气候生产潜力演变特征研究 |
| Study on evolutionary characteristics of climate production potential for major grain crops in the North China Plain under SSP scenarios |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-21 修订日期：2025-08-11 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2025-0076 |
| 中文关键词: 气候生产潜力 华北平原 气候变化 粮食安全 |
| 英文关键词: climate production potential the North China Plain climate change food security |
| 基金项目:国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目（23&ZD119） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究基于5个全球气候模式（GCM）和3个SSP情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0），采用土地生产估计系统（ESLP）模型估算未来情景下（2025—2050年）华北平原（5省2市）的小麦、玉米、水稻气候生产潜力，并利用线性倾斜率和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、ArcGIS空间分析法分析其年际变化趋势以及空间分布特征，并与历史基准时间（1990—2014年）进行对比。结果表明：从时序变化特征看，与基期相比，未来情景下玉米的年际平均气候生产潜力上涨幅度为22.32%~37.46%，水稻上涨幅度为28.78%~39.11%，小麦变化幅度为-9.18%~4.24%。在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5情景下3种作物气候生产潜力均会提高，但在SSP3-7.0情境下小麦气候生产潜力会降低。从空间变化特征看，玉米气候生产潜力分布与基期类似，由华北平原北部燕山向南北两侧递减，南北分布差异明显。小麦气候生产潜力空间分布由基期的南北递减转变为由东南向西北递减的格局。水稻气候生产潜力空间分布由基期的南北走势转为由西南向东北逐级递减的趋势，且高值区范围更广。在未来气候变化中，水分是影响玉米气候生产潜力的主导因子。而影响小麦的最大影响因子则是温度。辐射和水分因子共同主导水稻气候生产潜力的变化。温度会降低水分、辐射因子对于玉米、小麦气候生产潜力增益效果，但会提高水分、辐射因子对水稻气候生产潜力增益效果。研究表明，未来气候变化对华北平原不同粮食作物气候生产潜力影响显著，且存在明显的空间区域差异，优化农业管理措施来适应气候变化显得尤为重要。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study is based on five global climate models（GCM）and three SSP scenarios（SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0）. We use the estimation system for land productivity（ESLP）model to estimate the climate production potential（CPP）of wheat, maize, and rice in the North China Plain（covering five provinces and two cities）under future scenarios（2025—2050）. Linear slope and Mann-Kendall trend tests, along with ArcGIS spatial analysis, are employed to analyze the interannual trend and spatial distribution characteristics. Comparisons are made against the historical baseline period（1990—2014）. Compared with the baseline period, under future scenarios the inter-annual mean CPP of maize increases by 22.32% - 37.46%, that of rice by 28.78% - 39.11%, while wheat changes by – 9.18% to 4.24%. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios all three crops exhibit increased CPP; however, under SSP3-7.0 the CPP of wheat declines. From the spatial variation perspective, the distribution of maize CPP is similar to that of the historical baseline period, decreasing from north to south, with significant differences between the northern and southern regions. Wheat CPP shifts from a north-south decreasing pattern to a southeast-northwest decreasing pattern. Rice CPP transitions from a north-south pattern in the baseline to a southwest-northeast decreasing trend in the future, with a broader high-value area. In future climate change scenarios, moisture will be the dominant factor controlling the CPP of maize. By contrast, temperature constitutes the single most influential climatic variable affecting wheat production potential. For rice, the combined effects of solar radiation and moisture jointly govern changes in its CPP. Elevated temperatures tend to diminish the positive contributions of moisture and radiation to maize and wheat CPP, yet they enhance the beneficial effects of these factors on rice CPP.Future climate change will significantly impact the CPP of different grain crops in the North China Plain, with marked regional spatial differences. Optimized agricultural management measures to adapt to climate change will be crucial. |
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