| 王亚楠,刘迎夏,马进川,马军伟,褚军杰,王强,邹平.鲜食玉米籽粒镉累积关键影响因子及其影响途径——基于随机森林模型[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(5):1199-1207. |
| 鲜食玉米籽粒镉累积关键影响因子及其影响途径——基于随机森林模型 |
| Key influencing factors and pathways of cadmium accumulation in fresh maize grains: based on Random Forest model |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-02 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2024-0552 |
| 中文关键词: 玉米 镉 随机森林 影响因素 |
| 英文关键词: maize cadmium Random Forest influencing factor |
| 基金项目:国家玉米产业体系项目（CARS-02-25）；浙江省高层次人才项目（2021R52045） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探究玉米籽粒镉（Cd）累积的关键影响因子及其影响途径，本研究以浙江省衢州市Cd污染区种植的鲜食玉米及对应土壤为研究对象，结合随机森林（RF）模型对土壤影响因素（pH、有效态Cd、全量Cd）和植株影响因素（各部位Cd含量以及对Cd的转运情况、品种）展开分析。结果表明，土壤pH与籽粒Cd含量呈负相关，其他变量与籽粒Cd含量呈正相关。RF模型的解释方差（VECV）可以解释玉米籽粒Cd含量变化的75.65%。各影响因子对玉米籽粒Cd累积的重要性中，植株因子表现为TF芯-籽粒>品种>茎Cd>根Cd>BCF>苞叶Cd，土壤因子表现为土壤pH>土壤有效态Cd>土壤全量Cd。路径分析表明，土壤pH和土壤全量Cd通过直接影响土壤有效态Cd含量，从而间接影响玉米对Cd的吸收以及Cd在植株地上部的迁移、转运，最终影响玉米籽粒中的Cd累积。茎Cd、叶Cd和芯Cd 3个变量共同解释了玉米籽粒Cd含量的47%，模型的预测能力为45.57%（拟合优度为0.455 7）。研究表明，土壤pH、玉米对Cd的转运能力和品种是影响玉米籽粒Cd累积的最关键因子。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to explore the key influencing factors and influencing pathways of cadmium（Cd）content in maize grains, In this study, fresh maize planted in Cd polluted area of Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province and the corresponding soil were taken as the research object. The influence factors of soil（pH, available Cd, total Cd）and plant（Cd content in each organ, Cd translocation factors and varieties）were analyzed by Random Forest（RF）model. The results showed that soil pH was negatively correlated with grain Cd content, while other variables were positively correlated with Cd content. The variance explained by the predictive model based on cross-validation（VECV）in RF model explained 75.65% of the variation of Cd content in maize grains. The importance of influencing factors on the Cd content in maize grains was as follows：TFcob-grain>variety>stem Cd>root Cd>BCF>husk Cd（plant factor）; Soil pH>soil available Cd>soil total Cd（soil factor）. Path analysis showed that soil pH and soil total Cd directly affect the content of available Cd in soil, thereby indirectly affecting the absorption of Cd by maize and the migration and transport of Cd in the above-ground part of the plant, and finally affecting the content of Cd in maize grains. Stem Cd, leaf Cd and cob Cd together explained 47% of the Cd content in maize grains, and the prediction ability of the model was 45.57%（Goodness of fit=0.455 7）. In conclusion, soil pH, translocation ability for Cd and variety are the most important factors affecting maize grain Cd. |
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