| 孟军,杨玉蓉.黑龙江省水稻碳汇功能测算及碳中和趋势预测[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(1):247-259. |
| 黑龙江省水稻碳汇功能测算及碳中和趋势预测 |
| Estimation of carbon sink function and prediction of the carbon neutral trend for rice in Heilongjiang Province |
| 投稿时间：2024-02-20 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2024-0161 |
| 中文关键词: 黑龙江省 水稻 碳汇 碳中和 组合预测 |
| 英文关键词: Heilongjiang Province rice carbon sink carbon neutral combined forecasting |
| 基金项目:黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“黑龙江省供给侧粮食生产结构优化分析”（16JYB17） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究黑龙江省水稻的碳汇能力及变化规律，预测水稻碳中和的时间节点及演变趋势，为衡量黑龙江省水稻的碳中和水平提供量化参考。根据 2000—2021年黑龙江省水稻生产的相关数据，运用净碳汇法对水稻碳汇量（以 CO2计）进行测算，并构建基于残差优化的 ARIMA-BP 组合模型对黑龙江省水稻的碳中和趋势进行预测。结果显示：黑龙江省水稻碳排放总量呈“上升-下降”的变化趋势，于2013—2017年处于峰值平台期，单位面积排放量呈波动下降的变化趋势，年均下降0.57%；水稻CH4、秸秆燃烧和土壤N2O为主要碳排放源，且水稻CH4、灌溉和复合肥排放量总体呈上升趋势；土壤固碳量和单位面积土壤固碳量总体均呈上升趋势；水稻始终呈现为碳源状态，但碳源量逐渐减少。从单位面积角度考虑，黑龙江省水稻预计将于2054年达到碳中和，此后碳汇功能逐渐增强。研究表明：黑龙江省水稻已处于碳达峰时期，但仍处于碳源状态，预计可提前实现碳中和目标。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this study, the carbon sink capacity and variation of rice in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed, and the time node and evolution trend of rice carbon neutrality was predicted. This was done in order to provide quantitative reference for measuring the carbon neutrality of rice in Heilongjiang Province. According to the relevant data of rice production in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2021, the carbon sink of rice（calculated as CO2）was measured by using the net carbon sink method. Additionally, the ARIMA-BP combination model based on residual optimization was constructed to predict the carbon neutrality trend of rice in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that：total carbon emissions from rice fields in Heilongjiang Province showed a "rising-declining" trend, with a peak plateau in 2013—2017, and emissions per unit area showed a fluctuating downward trend, with an average annual decline of 0.57%. CH4 emission from soil and straw burning and N2O emission from soil are the main sources of carbon emissions. Overall, the carbon emissions of CH4, irrigation, and compound fertilizers showed an upward trend. The carbon sequestration of rice soil in Heilongjiang Province showed an increasing trend in both total soil carbon and per unit area soil carbon. Rice soils in Heilongjiang Province have always been in a carbon source state, but their capacity as a carbon source is gradually on the decline; In terms of unit area, rice in Heilongjiang Province is expected to reach carbon neutrality by 2054, and the carbon sink function of rice soils in this region will gradually strengthen thereafter. Research shows that rice in Heilongjiang province has been in the carbon peak period, but it is currently in the carbon source state and is expected to achieve its carbon neutrality goal ahead of schedule. |
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