| 刘静,连煜阳.种植业结构调整对化肥施用量的影响[J].农业环境科学学报,2019,38(11):2544-2552. |
| 种植业结构调整对化肥施用量的影响 |
| Effect of planting structure adjustment on chemical fertilizer applications in China |
| 投稿时间：2019-04-29 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2019-0477 |
| 中文关键词: 化肥施用量 种植业结构 蔬菜面积 瓜果面积 |
| 英文关键词: chemical fertilizer application planting structure vegetable harvest area fruit harvest area |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFD0201304）；环境保护部委托“农业现代化政策环境风险评估及预警”；国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作/港澳台科技创新合作重点专项项目“中泰合作二期适应气候变化的社区水资源管理”（2017YFE0133000） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 1978年至2015年中国农用化肥施用量持续增长，2016年首次出现负增长，但化肥施用强度并未有实质性下降，单位耕地面积的化肥施用折纯量仍然高达443.53 kg·hm-2，极大超过了发达国家为防止化肥对环境造成危害所设置的225 kg·hm-2的安全上限。本研究利用1994-2016年26个省份的面板数据，采用描述性统计分析和计量经济模型，科学剖析种植业结构调整，特别是蔬菜、水果面积增加同化肥施用强度增长之间的关系。结果表明，蔬菜、瓜果等经济作物的种植面积增加是化肥施用强度高、化肥施用量增长的重要原因，此外，地区经济发展水平、农作物总面积对农用化肥施用量增加有显著正向影响，化肥生产价格对化肥施用量有显著负向影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Chinese pure chemical fertilizer application(PCFA) has continuously increased from 1978 to 2015. Although there was a negative growth of PCFA for the first time in China in 2016, the use intensity of chemical fertilizers did not substantially decrease, and the per unit cultivated land using PCFAs was still as high as 443.53 kg·hm-2, which greatly exceeded the safety ceiling of 225 kg·hm-2 set by developed countries to prevent chemical damage to the environment. This study used data from 26 provinces from 1994 to 2016 to adopt descriptive statistical analysis and econometric models in order to scientifically explore the relationship between the planting structure adjustment in terms of the increase in vegetable and fruit crops and PCFA which quantitatively estimate the coefficient between the increase in vegetable and fruit crops with chemical fertilizer application. The results showed that the main reasons for the considerable increase in PCFA and high chemical fertilizer intensity in China were the planting structure adjustment and the growth ratio of vegetable and fruit harvest areas. In addition, the regional economic development level and total crop harvest area had significant positive impacts on the increase in PCFA, while the chemical fertilizer price had a significantly negative impact on the amount of fertilizer applied. |
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