| 罗川,李兆富,席庆,潘剑君.HSPF模型水文水质参数敏感性分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2014,33(10):1995-2002. |
| HSPF模型水文水质参数敏感性分析 |
| Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological and Water Quality Parameters of HSPF Model |
| 投稿时间：2014-03-01 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2014.10.017 |
| 中文关键词: 参数敏感性 HSPF模型 水文水质模拟 扰动分析法 |
| 英文关键词: parameter sensitivity HSPF model hydrological and water quality simulation perturbation analysis method |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41171071）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目；国家科技支撑计划子课题（2012BAJ22B02-03）；教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助项目 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 参数敏感性分析是模型不确定性量化的重要环节，有助于对关键参数的识别，减少参数的不确定性影响，进而提高参数优化效率。以太湖地区典型小流域为研究区，采用扰动分析法对HSPF模型水文模块、泥沙模块以及氮磷输移等水文、水质模拟过程的参数进行了敏感性分析。研究结果显示：水文模块选取的17个参数中有7个敏感： UZSN、INFILT、AGWRC对径流的敏感级别为Ⅲ类，LZSN、DEEPFR、INTFW、IRC敏感级别为Ⅱ类。泥沙透水地面模块选取的9个参数中，KSER、KGER、JGER为Ⅲ类敏感参数，JSER为Ⅳ类敏感参数；不透水地面模块选取的4个参数中，KEIM、JEIM、ACCSDP对泥沙产量的敏感级别为Ⅲ类；河道模块选取的5个参数中，KSAND、EXPSND为Ⅲ类敏感参数，TAUCS、TAUCD为Ⅱ类敏感参数。总氮模拟选取了23个参数分析敏感性，其中WSQOP、SQOLIM、MON-GRND-CONC为Ⅳ类敏感参数，KATM20、MON-IFLW-CONC为Ⅲ类敏感参数，TCNIT、PHYSET、MALGR敏感级别为Ⅱ类。磷素输移模拟选取了12个参数，MON-GRND-CONC敏感级别为Ⅲ类，MON-POTFW、MON-IFLW-CONC、MALGR、PHYSET敏感级别为Ⅱ类。研究结果对于开展基于HSPF模型的流域水文水质研究工作参数的选取具有一定的参考价值，尤其对于太湖周边地区众多低山丘陵小流域进行HSPF模型水文水质模拟时敏感性参数的选取具有借鉴意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Model sensitivity analysis measures the variability of output variables caused by perturbations in parameter values and input data. It is important for parameter selection, model calibration, and model improvement. As one of the integrated watershed model, HSPF(Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) model has a lot of parameters related to the physical characteristics of local watershed. In order to ascertain the sensitive parameters for hydrology and water quality simulation of HSPF model, a typical small watershed in the Taihu Lake hilly region was used as a case study. Perturbation method was employed to evaluate the sensitivity of parameters of hydrology, sediment and N and P transportation modules. It was found that seven of 17 selected parameters in the hydrology module were sensitive. The sensitive level of UZSN, INFILT, and AGWRC was Type Ⅲ, while that of LZSN, DEEPFR, INTFW, and IRC Type Ⅱ. Of nine parameters for the pervious surface of sediment, the sensitive level of KSER, KGER and JGER was Type Ⅲ, and JSER Type Ⅳ. Among the four parameters for impervious surface, the sensitive level of KEIM, JEIM and ACCSDP was Type Ⅲ. The reach parameters KSAND and EXPSND had Type Ⅲ sensitivity, while TAUCS and TAUCD had Type Ⅱ sensitivity. In selected 23 parameters for nitrogen simulation module, WSQOP, SQOLIM, MON-GRND-CONC were Type Ⅳ, KATM20 and MON-IFLW-CONC Type Ⅲ, and TCNIT, PHYSET and MALGR Type Ⅱ sensitive. Phosphorus module had 12 parameters, of which MON-GRND-CONC was Type Ⅲ and MON-POTFW, MON-IFLW-CONC, MALGR, and PHYSET Type Ⅱ sensitive parameters. These results would be useful for selection of sensitive parameters for hydrology and water quality simulation used for HSPF model, especially for small hilly watersheds in the Taihu Lake area. |
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