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| 基于PLUS模型并顾及交通规划的广州市土地利用情景模拟与分析 |
| Simulation and analysis of land use scenarios in Guangzhou based on the PLUS model and traffic planning scenario |
| 投稿时间：2022-06-08 修订日期：2022-07-31 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2022.0352 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用，PLUS模型，自然发展情景，交通规划情景，广州市 |
| 英文关键词: land use, PLUS model, natural development scenario, traffic planning scenario, Guangzhou City |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41301078）；广州市哲学社科规划2020年度课题（2020GZYB40） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为保障区域的可持续发展，对其未来的土地利用情景进行模拟预测十分必要。本研究采用马尔科夫链预测2030年各类用地总量，按照《广州市交通运输“十四五”规划》的设想，利用PLUS模型设置自然发展情景和交通规划情景，模拟广州市2030年的土地利用格局，并借助土地利用转移矩阵和景观指数分析两种情景下的地类转换特征和景观格局特征。结果表明：交通规划对人造地表的影响较大，在交通线路3 km范围内，交通规划情景下人造地表的面积比自然发展情景增加22.06 km2，主要由耕地和林地转移而来。两种情景下人造地表均以“外延式”发展为主，自然发展情景下人造地表在各个区域的蔓延速度相对一致，交通规划情景则集中于中心城区外围分布，在远离市中心地区的分布概率较低；相比于自然发展情景，交通规划情景中斑块的优势度更高，斑块形状更复杂，具体表现为人造地表优势度明显上升，耕地和草地的形状更破碎复杂。研究表明，依据交通规划，利用PLUS模型进行城市未来用地格局模拟具有合理性，模拟结果能为未来国土空间管控及规划提供基础数据支撑和决策依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Scenario simulation and prediction of future land use is an integral step in ensuring regional sustainable development. The Markov chain was adopted to predict the total area of various types of land use in 2030. As envisaged in the 14th Five-Year Plan for Guangzhou Transportation, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Guangzhou in 2030 by setting up natural development and traffic planning scenarios. Additionally, the land use transfer matrix and landscape index were applied to explore the properties of land use type transformation and landscape pattern under two different scenarios. The results show that traffic planning has a significant impact on the artificial surface, within 3 km of traffic line，with the area of the artificial surface under the traffic planning scenario increasing by 22.06 km2 compared with the natural development scenario, which mainly transferred from cultivated land and forest land. The artificial surface will mainly undergo extensive expansion under these two scenarios. In the natural development scenario, the spreading speed of the artificial surface in each region will be relatively consistent, while in the traffic planning scenario, the artificial surface will be concentrated in the periphery of the central urban area, and the probability of distribution far away from the city center is low. Compared with natural development scenario, traffic planning scenario has higher patch dominance and more complicated patch form, which is reflected in the artificial surface with significantly increased dominance and cultivated land and grassland with more fragmented and complex shapes. Thus, it is reasonable to utilize the PLUS model to simulate the future urban land use pattern by considering transportation planning, since the simulation results can provide essential data support and decision-making bases to underpin future territorial space management and planning. |
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