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| 耦合GMOP与PLUS模型的干旱区土地利用格局模拟 |
| Simulation of land-use patterns in arid areas coupled with GMOP and PLUS models |
| 投稿时间：2021-12-11 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2021.0865 |
| 中文关键词: PLUS模型，多目标优化，土地利用，情景模拟，昌吉回族自治州 |
| 英文关键词: PLUS model, multi-objective optimization, land use, scenario simulation, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41561019） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为模拟昌吉回族自治州自然发展情景下未来土地利用格局变化趋势，构建区域内经济效益和生态环境效益协同优化的土地利用空间分布格局，运用PLUS模型和GMOP模型，基于2010、2020年土地利用现状数据，借助土地利用动态度和土地利用转移矩阵对研究区土地利用趋势进行分析和情景模拟。结果表明，2010—2020年昌吉州地类变化主要是由草地向其他土地利用类型转入，其中草地退化为未利用地的占比最高，为58.76%。基于PLUS的自然发展情景模拟，2030年建设用地扩张，南部山区草地退化，土地经济效益相比2020年增加91.43%，而生态价值却减少了1.40%；基于GMOP-PLUS耦合模型的多目标优化情景模拟，2030年草地退化和建设用地扩张趋势得到控制，未利用地得到较大程度的开发利用，实现了土地经济效益（81.90%）和生态价值（5.61%）双提升。研究表明，GMOP-PLUS模型既实现了研究区土地利用类型在结构上的优化，又能较好地模拟各地类空间分布格局，可为昌吉回族自治州未来土地利用规划编制和土地可持续利用情景预测提供理论依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The primary aim of this study was to simulate and predict future changes in land use patterns under a natural development scenario in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, China. Another aim was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the collaborative optimization of benefits related to the economic use of land and the ecological environment in the region to provide theoretical and practical references for the preparation of land spatial planning and sustainable land use. Changes in land use in the study area were analyzed based on data from 2010 and 2020 using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation（PLUS）and Grey Multiple Objectives Programming（GMOP） models. Scenario simulations were performed using the land dynamic degree and land use transfer matrix methods. It was found that changes from grassland to other uses represented the most common land use change. In particular, 58.76% of the grassland degraded to unused land. According to the PLUS natural development scenario, the area of construction land increased while that covered by grassland in the southern mountainous region decreased. The land economic benefit in 2030 increased by 91.43% compared with that in 2020, while the ecological benefit decreased by 1.40%. Following the multi-objective development scenario of the GMOP-PLUS coupled model, both the degradation of grassland and the expansion of construction land could be controlled, while most of the unused land could be developed and utilized. This led to an improvement in land economy（81.90%）as well as ecological benefit（5.61%）. The GMOP-PLUS model provided a better simulation of the spatial distribution of land use types and was able to optimize them. These findings provide a theoretical basis for future land use planning and for the prediction of sustainable land use scenarios in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture. |
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