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| 辽宁省未来土地利用情景模拟及玉米生产潜力预测 |
| Simulation of the future land use scenario and prediction of maize potential yields in Liaoning Province |
| 投稿时间：2021-09-08 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2021.0604 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用情景，玉米生产潜力，CA-Markov模型，GAEZ模型，辽宁省 |
| 英文关键词: land use scenario, maize potential yields, CA-Markov model, GAEZ model, Liaoning Province |
| 基金项目:海南省自然科学基金项目 （321QN187）； 海南大学科研启动基金 （kyqd （sk） 2135） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了探究未来耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响，进而保障未来粮食安全，本研究利用CA-Markov模型模拟了辽宁省2050年的土地利用情景，并利用全球农业生态区划（GAEZ）模型对2050年的玉米生产潜力进行预测，进而对2020—2050年辽宁省玉米生产潜力的时空变化特征进行预判。预测结果表明，未来30年辽宁省土地利用类型的变化以旱地和林地的减少（分别为29.78万hm2和25.05万hm2）以及城乡工矿用地的增加（55.55万hm2）为主，地类的相互转化主要表现为其他地类向旱地转化，以及旱地和水田向城乡工矿用地的转化。基于2050年的耕地情景，预测辽宁省玉米潜在总产量和平均潜在单产分别为393.38万t和7 830.56 kg·hm-2，其中北部和南部地区玉米平均潜在单产大部分在8 000 kg·hm-2以上，远高于西部和东部部分地区。2020—2050年，受耕地变化影响，玉米潜在总产量和平均潜在单产分别减少630.52万t和679.57 kg·hm-2，但在空间上大约近一半旱地的平均潜在单产仍有所增加。未来辽宁省应制定更多的生态环境保护政策，防止过度开垦及建设用地扩张现象的发生，进而在保证耕地资源数量和质量的前提下确保未来粮食安全。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The CA-Markov model was employed to simulate the land use scenario in Liaoning Province in 2050 to explore the impact of future cropland change on crop yield potential and ensure future food security. The Global Agro-Ecological Zones（GAEZ）model was used to predict maize yield potential in 2050. Finally, predictions of the spatio-temporal changes in maize yield potential during 2020—2050 were examined. The results were as follows： The predicted area changes of different land use types in Liaoning Province over the next 30 years were mainly caused by a decrease in dryland and woodland（297 800 hm2 and 250 500 hm2, respectively） , and an increase in built-up land（555 500 hm2） . The interconversion of different land use types was mainly from different land use types to dryland, and from dryland and paddy fields to built-up land. The total maize production potential and average yield potential in Liaoning were 3.93 million tons and 7 830.56 kg·hm-2, respectively, based on the simulated cropland scenario for 2050. The maize yield potential in the northern and southern regions was more than 8 000 kg·hm-2, much higher than that in the western and eastern regions. From 2020 to 2050, the total maize production potential decreased by 6.31 million tons, and the average maize yield potential decreased by 679.57 kg · hm-2 due to cropland change. Maize yield potential increased by approximately half of the dryland. Therefore, Liaoning Province should formulate more ecological and environmental protection policies in the future for prevention of excessive reclamation and built-up land expansion to ensure future food security on the premise of ensuring the quantity and quality of cropland. |
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