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| 基于FLUS和InVEST模型的南京市生境质量多情景预测 |
| Multi-scenario prediction of habitat quality in Nanjing based on FLUS and InVEST models |
| 投稿时间：2021-07-05 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2021.0411 |
| 中文关键词: 生境质量，CA-Markov模型，FLUS模型，InVEST模型，多情景预测 |
| 英文关键词: habitat quality, CA-Markov model, FLUS model, InVEST model, multi-scenario prediction |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41801169）；自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室开放基金项目（2019CZEPK06）；江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目（KYCX21_1410） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 高周冰 | 南京财经大学公共管理学院, 南京 210023
自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室, 南京 210000 | | | 王晓瑞 | 江苏省土地开发整理中心, 南京 210017 | | | 隋雪艳 | 江苏省土地开发整理中心, 南京 210017 | | | 汪翔 | 深圳市宝安区城市更新和土地整备局, 广东 深圳 518100 | | | 范业婷 | 南京财经大学公共管理学院, 南京 210023
自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室, 南京 210000 | | | 朱青 | 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008 | | | 吕立刚 | 南京财经大学公共管理学院, 南京 210023
自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室, 南京 210000 | liganglv@nufe.edu.cn |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为评估城市扩张对生境质量的影响，以江苏省南京市为例，基于2009、2014年和2018年3期土地利用数据，采用CAMarkov和FLUS耦合模型对南京市2025年和2035年土地利用进行多情景预测，并运用InVEST模型评估其生境质量状况。结果表明，2009—2018年，南京市城镇用地呈不断扩张趋势，面积共增加223.65 km2，主要转入来源为耕地和农村居民点。2009、2014年和2018年市域的平均生境质量呈持续下降趋势，分别为0.448 1、0.441 1和0.433 4。4种模拟预测情景中，生境质量均值的排序为生态优先情景>协调发展情景>自然增长情景>经济发展情景，而生境质量等级分布差别较大的区域主要是南京市的北部、南部以及中心城区。具体来说，在自然增长情景下，2025年和2035年南京市生境质量将保持下降趋势，低值区面积占比较2018年分别增加1.40个百分点和2.87个百分点；在经济发展情景下，中心区域、南部及北部生境质量较自然发展情景下进一步下降，到2025年和2035年，低值区面积占比将分别增加2.67个百分点和4.76个百分点；在生态优先情景下，2025年和2035年南京市生境质量高值区面积占比较2018年分别增加0.40个百分点和1.04个百分点；而协调发展情景下，城镇用地规模将得到有序控制，林地的空间分布在原有基础上向外延伸，使得市域生境质量逐步提升，故2025年和2035年南京市生境质量高值区面积占比分别增加0.17个百分点和0.80个百分点。基于此，为进一步减缓南京市生境退化趋势，改善区域生境质量和生态环境条件，应合理控制城镇用地规模，采取适当的生态保护政策，同时有序开展国土空间整治与生态修复工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Assessing the impact of urban expansion on habitat quality is critical for advancing urban sustainability. Based on the land use data of Nanjing in 2009, 2014, and 2018, we used the CA-Markov and FLUS coupling model to predict the land use of Nanjing in 2025 and 2035 under multiple scenarios, and then used the InVEST model to evaluate the habitat quality. The results showed that the urban land area in Nanjing increased by 223.65 km2 from 2009 to 2018, which was mainly from cultivated land and rural residential land. The average habitat quality of Nanjing showed downward trends of 0.448 1, 0.441 1, and 0.433 4 in 2009, 2014, and 2018, respectively. Among the four simulated prediction scenarios, the average habitat quality was ranked as follows:ecological priority scenario > coordinated development scenario > natural growth scenario > economic development scenario. In addition, the areas with large differences in the distribution of habitat quality grades were mainly in the northern, southern, and central urban areas of Nanjing. Specifically, under the natural growth scenario, the habitat quality of Nanjing was forecast to maintain the current downward trend in 2025 and 2035. Compared with 2018, the area proportion of low value was predicted to increase by 1.40 percent points and 2.87 percent points in 2025 and 2035, respectively. Under the economic development scenario, the habitat quality of the central, southern, and northern areas was forecast to further decline compared with the natural development scenario, with the low value area proportion predicted to increase by 2.67 percent points and 4.76 percent points in 2025 and 2035, respectively. Under the ecological priority scenario, the high value area proportion of Nanjing ' s habitat quality was forecast to further increase by 0.40 percent points and 1.04 percent points in 2025 and 2035, respectively, compared with that in 2018. Under the coordinated development scenario, the scale of urban land was found to be controlled in an orderly manner, and the spatial distribution of woodland was predicted to extend outward from the original layout, which would gradually improve the urban habitat quality. Therefore, the high value area proportion of Nanjing ' s habitat quality was forecast to increase by 0.17 percent points and 0.80 percent points in 2025 and 2035, respectively. To decrease the trend of habitat degradation, improve regional habitat quality and ecological environment conditions, it is necessary to control the scale of urban land use, adopt appropriate ecological protection policies, and carry out spatial renovations and ecological restoration work across the national territory in an orderly manner. |
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