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| 流域尺度农业“水-土-经济”要素耦合机制与行为调控系统效应模拟 |
| Simulation of the coupling mechanism and behavioral control effects of agricultural “Water-LandEconomic” factors in the Heihe River basin |
| 投稿时间：2021-02-23 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2021.0112 |
| 中文关键词: “水-土-经济”系统耦合，黑河流域，“粮改饲”政策，空间异质性，农业部门局部均衡分析模型 |
| 英文关键词: Water-Land-Economic systems nexus, Heihe River basin, "grain-to-feed" policy, spatial heterogeneity, partial equilibrium agricultural sector model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目（51861125101）；中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）（XDA20100104） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 农业系统的“水-土-经济”要素是刻画人类活动与生态-水文过程互馈效应耦合的关键界面之一。本研究以局部均衡理论为依据，基于栅格尺度的水、土、作物的空间分布数据与行政区尺度的粮食生产、消费与贸易数据嵌套，构建了行政区-栅格跨尺度的农业部门局部均衡分析“水-土-经济”要素耦合模型（Water-Land-Economic nexus Model，WLEM）。研究以黑河流域“粮改饲”补贴政策为例，模拟种植与加工环节的农机设备补贴下水土资源消耗强度与空间布局的变化，刻画农业“水-土-经济”要素的耦合机制与政策干预下行为调控的资源消耗及经济产出的系统效应。模拟发现，对种植环节的大型农机补贴增加了非水土自然要素的投入，降低了生产成本，有助于增加青贮玉米种植面积。而对加工环节进行农机补贴，可通过提高青贮技术直接影响青贮玉米作为饲料的投入，与种植环节补贴相比，其对青贮玉米产量的拉动作用较大。种植与加工环节叠加补贴在鼓励青贮玉米生产的同时，一定程度减少了籽粒玉米种植面积，符合“粮改饲”政策目标。结果表明，在政策补贴过程中需重视加工环节的农业机械设备补贴，并完善种植补贴和加工补贴两种政策的优势互补机制。从生产和加工两个环节补贴的空间效益来看，青贮玉米与籽粒玉米在畜牧业投入上的竞争关系使作物种植过程中水土资源要素投入呈现出空间异质性特征，这与栅格尺度上水土资源要素作为农产品成本的占比以及要素供给和替代弹性差异直接相关。该研究为制定合理的水土资源配置方案与农业发展政策，实现流域水-生态-经济协同发展提供了科学依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The "Water-Land-Economic" nexus of agricultural systems is a key interface to characterize the coupling effect of human activities and eco-hydrological processes. Based on the partial equilibrium theory, this study constructs a partial equilibrium analysis model of an agricultural "Water-Land-Economic" sector at the administrative-grid cross-scale based on the spatial distribution data of water, land, and crops at the grid-scale nested with the food production, consumption, and trade data at the administrative scale. The study takes the "grain-to-feed" subsidy policy in the Heihe River basin as an example, simulating the differences in the intensity of water and land consumption and the spatial layout under the subsidized agricultural equipment in planting and processing and characterizing the coupling mechanism of agricultural "Water-Land-Economic" elements and behavior under the policy intervention. The systemic effects of resource consumption and economic output of agricultural "Water-Land-Economic" factors and policy interventions were modeled. The simulation found that subsidizing large agricultural machinery in the planting process increased the input of non-land and non-water factors, reduced the production cost, and helped increase the area planted with silage corn. In contrast, subsidizing farm machinery for processing directly affected the input of silage as feed by improving silage technology, which had a more significant effect on silage production than harvesting. The overlapping subsidies for planting and processing encouraged silage production while reducing the area of seed corn planted to a certain extent, in line with the policy objective of "grain-to-feed". The results show that policy subsidies should consider planting subsidies for processing agricultural machinery and equipment, and that a complementary mechanism of two policy subsidies, namely planting subsidies and processing subsidies to increase the input of agricultural machinery and equipment, should be implemented. In terms of the spatial benefits of subsidies in both production and processing, the competition between silage maize and seed maize in livestock input causes spatial heterogeneity in the input of land and water resources in the crop planting process. This is directly related to the proportion of land and water resource factors as the cost of agricultural products at the grid-scale and the differences in the elasticity of supply and substitution of these factors. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating reasonable land and water resource allocation plans and agricultural development policies to achieve synergistic water-ecology-economic development in the river basin. |
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