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| 气候和社会经济因素对全球畜禽氮排放的驱动研究 |
| Nitrogen emissions from livestock production driven by climate and socioeconomic factors |
| 投稿时间：2022-03-30 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2022.0168 |
| 中文关键词: 畜禽，氮排放，氮利用率，影响因素，种养结合 |
| 英文关键词: livestock, nitrogen emissions, nitrogen use efficiency, influencing factors, cropland-based livestock production |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金委员会国际（地区）合作与交流项目（42061124001） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 畜禽氮（N）排放是全球人为氮排放的主要来源，探究其主要影响因素对畜禽氮减排具有重要意义。本研究通过分析全球166个国家畜禽的氮排放强度和氮利用率（NUE）明确畜禽氮排放特征，并运用计量经济学方法探究气候和社会经济因素对畜禽各阶段（包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两个阶段）氮排放强度的影响。结果发现，当前全球全链条畜禽的总氮（活性氮，包括N2O、NH3、NO3-和NOx四种氮素形式）排放量为98 Tg，总NUE （包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两阶段的全链条NUE）为7%，其中用于饲料种植的氮排放占78%。畜禽种类和养殖方式对氮排放强度（以畜禽蛋白质质量计）影响很大，散养鸡氮排放强度最高（1.9 kg·kg-1），山羊和绵羊的氮排放强度最低（0.6 kg·kg-1），反刍动物主要以草和秸秆为食，饲料种植阶段氮排放较低。全球鸡的总NUE最高（9%），奶牛和奶水牛的总NUE最低（5%），单胃动物的饲料转化率较高，因而总NUE高。畜禽氮排放与人均GDP、城市化率和降雨量呈极显著的正相关关系，与温度相关性不显著。研究表明：社会经济发展提升了饲料生产阶段的氮排放强度，但降低了畜禽养殖阶段的氮排放强度并推动了畜禽养殖业的发展。目前饲料生产阶段的氮排放未与经济发展脱钩，未来通过优化畜禽饲料管理推动氮减排至关重要。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Livestock nitrogen(N) emissions are the main source of global anthropogenic N emissions. It is crucial to investigate its main influencing factors for livestock N emission reduction. Here, we analyzed the N emission intensity and nitrogen use efficiency(NUE) of livestock in 166 countries worldwide to clarify the characteristics of livestock N emissions, and used econometrics to investigate the influence of major climatic and socioeconomic factors on the N emission intensity at all stages(containing feed production and livestock raising stages). We found that global total livestock N emissions(namely reactive nitrogen, including N2O, NH3, NO3- and NOx) from the whole production chain were 98 Tg(78% from feed production), with an overall NUE(NUE over the whole production chain including feed production and livestock raising stages) of 7%. Different livestock types and feeding methods had influences on the N emission intensity(N emission amount per kilogram of protein), with the highest from backyard chickens(1.9 kg·kg-1) and the lowest from goats and sheep(0.6 kg·kg-1). Ruminants mainly feed on grass and straw with lower N emissions. Chickens had the highest NUE(9%) and dairy cattle and dairy buffalo had the lowest NUE(5%) due to higher feed conversion rates in monogastric animals. Livestock N emissions showed significant positive correlations with GDP per capita, urbanization and rainfall, and insignificant regressions with temperature. The study showed socioeconomic development increased N emission intensity in the feed production stage, but had the opposite effect in the livestock raising stage and promote the development of animal husbandry. The N emissions from feed production have still not decoupled with economic development although it reduced livestock raising N emissions significantly. Thus, it is essential to optimize livestock feed management to promote N emission reduction in the future. |
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