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| 集中连片贫困区耕地安全性评价及影响因素分析——以忻州市为例 |
| Evaluation of cultivated land security and analysis of its influencing factors in concentrated contiguous poverty areas: A case study of Xinzhou City |
| 投稿时间：2020-09-22 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2020.0535 |
| 中文关键词: 集中连片贫困区，综合安全指数，耕地安全性，生态压力，可持续发展，忻州市 |
| 英文关键词: concentrated contiguous poverty areas, comprehensive safety index, cultivated land security, ecological pressure, sustainable development, Xinzhou City |
| 基金项目:山西省人文社会科学重点研究基地项目（20190131） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为评价集中连片贫困区——忻州市的耕地安全性，基于生态足迹模型，测算忻州市及14个县（市、区）的生态足迹和承载力，进而计算生态盈余/赤字、生态压力指数和生态可持续发展指数三个耕地安全性指数，采用权重赋值后的综合安全指数对忻州市及14个县（市、区）2009-2018年的耕地安全性进行分析，并选用多元线性回归模型定量分析其影响因素。结果表明：在时间尺度上，2009-2018年忻州市综合安全指数呈现出时间差异性，整体呈下降趋势；在空间尺度上，忻州市14个县（市、区）综合安全性表现为空间上的不平衡性和区域差异性，综合安全等级趋向于不安全，不安全县（市、区）增多，东、西部综合安全性低于中部，向不可持续方向发展；人口、经济、产业结构、农业投入与产出、资源禀赋对忻州市耕地安全均有影响，逐步多元线性回归分析结果显示，多种因素共同作用下影响忻州市耕地安全的因素是人均GDP（国内生产总值）和农业机械总动力。忻州市耕地安全性发展趋势需要引起重视。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to evaluate the safety of cultivated land in the concentrated contiguous poverty areas of Xinzhou City, based on the ecological footprint model, the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of Xinzhou City and 14 counties and districts were calculated. The ecological surplus/deficit, ecological pressure index, and ecological sustainable development index were calculated as three cultivated land safety indexes. Using the comprehensive safety index after weight assignment, an analysis of the cultivated land safety of Xinzhou in 14 counties and districts from 2009 to 2018 was conducted, and the multiple linear regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors. The results showed that on a temporal scale, the comprehensive safety index of Xinzhou City from 2009 to 2018 changed, and the overall trend was downward. On a spatial scale, the comprehensive security of the 14 counties and districts in Xinzhou City showed a spatial imbalance and regional differences. The comprehensive security level tended to be unsafe, the number of unsafe counties and districts increased, and the comprehensive security of the east and the west was lower than that of the central area. Thus, it was developing in an unsustainable direction. The population, economy, industrial structure, agricultural input and output, and resource endowment had an impact on the cultivated land security in Xinzhou City. The results of the stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that the factors affecting the cultivated land security in Xinzhou City were GDP per capita and the total power of agricultural machinery. Attention should be paid to the trend of development of cultivated land security in Xinzhou City. |
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