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| 西藏气候变化趋势及其对青稞产量的影响 |
| Climate change trend and its impact on yield of highland barley in Tibet, China |
| 投稿时间：2017-10-10 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2017.0247 |
| 中文关键词: 青稞，气候变化，产量，影响因素，气温，降水量 |
| 英文关键词: highland barley, climate change, yield, influence factors, air temperature, precipitation |
| 基金项目:西藏科技厅重点科研项目（2015ZD-15-36） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2015 |
| 全文下载次数: 2130 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 为了研究气候变化对西藏青稞产量的影响，采用西藏37个气象站点1986-2015年的气象资料，选取年均以及青稞生长期平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降水量、空气相对湿度和日照时数以及逐年青稞产量数据，运用趋势分析、相关分析和逐步回归方法分析了气候变化趋势及其对青稞产量的影响。结果表明：1986-2015年以来西藏地区气温呈线性增加趋势，温度（平均气温、最高温和最低温）增加特别是最低温的增加与青稞产量增加呈极显著正相关，是影响青稞产量的最重要因素；降水量也是影响青稞产量的主要因素之一，与青稞产量呈极显著正相关；空气相对湿度对青稞产量的影响不显著；日照时数与青稞产量呈负相关，但相关性不显著。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to study the effect of climate change on the yield of highland barley in Tibet, the meteorological data of 37 Tibet weather stations from year 1986 to 2015 had been selected. The climatic factors of annual and highland barley growth period, such as the average air temperature, the highest air temperature, the lowest air temperature, the precipitation, the air relative humidity, the sunshine hours, and the annual barley production data were selected. The trend of climate change and its effect on the yield of highland barley were analyzed by trend analysis, correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that the temperature increased linearly in the past 30 years. The increase of temperature(mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature), especially the increase of the lowest temperature was extremely significant positive correlation with the increase of highland barley yield, which was the most important factor affecting the yield of highland barley. Precipitation was also one of the main factors affecting the yield of highland barley, and it had a significant positive correlation with the yield of highland barley. The effect of relative humidity on the yield of highland barley was not significant. The sunshine hours had a negative correlation trend with the yield of highland barley, but the correlation was not significant. |
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