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| 基于MCE-CA耦合模型的嘉兴市土地利用预测情景下生态敏感性评价 |
| Evaluation of Ecological Sensitivity of Land Use in Jiaxing City Based on MCE-CA Model |
| 投稿时间：2014-12-16 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2014.0359 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用动态模拟 MCE-CA模型 生态敏感性 |
| 英文关键词: land use dynamic simulation MCE-CA model ecological sensitivity |
| 基金项目:国家环保公益性行业科研专项“道路建设工程生态环境影响定量评价技术和方法”(201209029-1) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于全国生态环境10年变化 (2000-2010年) 遥感调查与评估项目中嘉兴市2000年、2005年和2010年3期TM 遥感影像数据,运用MCE-CA 模型,预测出2005年、2010年土地利用格局,与实际情况进行模拟精度检验,其Kappa系数达到0.94 和0.92,证明模型精度很高。通过MCE-CA 模型预测嘉兴市2015年、2020年土地利用格局,计算生态服务价值变化率与土地利用强度变化率的比值得到土地利用变化下的生态敏感性指数,运用ArcGIS 空间叠加功能分析其过程,目的在于得到生态敏感性分布情况。得出:2000-2020年嘉兴市的景观格局发生了较大变化,耕地大幅度减少,建设用地大幅度增加。2000-2010年生态敏感性急剧增高,说明近10年生态环境受到威胁愈来愈严重;2010-2020年在林草湿地不可转化为建设用地,耕地和未利用地可转化为建设用地的预测情境下,生态敏感性有所降低,生态环境得到改善。此土地利用与生态敏感性预测结果对嘉兴市的城市规划、可持续发展具有一定的借鉴作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on three periods TMremote sensing image data in Jiaxing City of Year 2000, 2005 and 2010 in the national ecological environment remote sensing investigation and assessment project (2000-2010), by using MCE-CA model, the forecast land use of year 2005 and 2010 was obtained. Compared the forecast land use with the true land use of year 2005 and 2010, the Kappa index was 0.94 and 0.92, it proved that the simulation accuracy of MCE-CA model was high. The land use pattern in 2015 and 2020 could also be obtained by using MCE-CA model. With the rate of land use change intensity ratio and ecological service change value ratio, the land use ecological sensitivity index could be obtained. By using ArcGIS spatial overlay analysis to analyze the process, the sensitivity function distribution could be obtained. It concluded that the landscape pattern changed seriously in Jiaxing City from year 2000 to 2020, the farm land decreased greatly, the construction land increased greatly. The ecological sensitivity increased dramatically from year 2000 to 2010, and the ecological environment was threatened more and more seriously. In the situation of the forest, grass and wetlands could not be transformed into construction land, farm land and uncultivated land could be transformed into construction land from year 2010 to 2020, the ecological sensitivity decreased, ecological environment would be improved. Above all, the land use and ecological sensitivity prediction results is propitious to sustainable development planning in Jiaxing City. |
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