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| 粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅴ.粮食潜力实现率及其评价方法 |
| The Theory, Method and Its Application of the Grain Yield ForecastⅤ. The Conversion Rate of Grain Yield Potential and Its Evaluation |
| 投稿时间：2014-03-26 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2014.0071 |
| 中文关键词: 粮食潜力 估产 潜力实现率 评价 预测 |
| 英文关键词: grain yield potential grain estimating conversion rate of production potential evaluation forecast |
| 基金项目:中国农业科学院科技创新工程(2014-cxgc-hyl) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 黄治平 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 蔡彦明 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 王铄今 | 北京农业信息技术研究中心, 北京 100089 | | | 侯彦林 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | bjyours@sina.com | | 米长虹 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 刘书田 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 郑宏艳 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 王农 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 夏维 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 任军 | 吉林省农业科学院, 吉林 长春 130033 | | | 王新民 | 河南牧业经济学院, 河南 郑州 450011 | | | 侯显达 | 北京优雅施软件研发服务中心, 北京 100089 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为说明粮食潜力与估产的关系,定义了"粮食潜力实现率"的概念,它是与粮食潜力预测值相比,当年实际达到或能够达到的百分比,它将潜力值和当年估产值或实际产量结合在一起,可用来评价潜力实际达到的程度,并可反映气候年型。应用结果表明:2010年各省单产和总产潜力平均实现率围绕100%波动,说明科技进步对增产仍然起到支撑作用,而1999—2008年各省单产和总产潜力平均实现率低于100%,说明科技进步对增产作用在减小。因此,粮食潜力实现率可以用来评价粮食增产趋势和科技进步的贡献,其方法实用、误差小。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To illustrate the relationship between grain yield potential and yield estimation, the concept of conversion rate of grain yield potential was defined. It was the percentage of the actual yield value or could be achieved value compared with the forecast value of the grain yield potential. The forecast potential value was combined with the estimation value or the actual yield value of the year, which could be used to evaluate the actual degree yield potential achieved. And the climatic year type could be reflected. The results of application showed that per unit yield and total yield potential conversion rate were around 100% in 2010, which indicated the progress of science and technology to the production still played a supporting role. But the per unit yield and total yield potential conversion rate was less than 100% from 1999 to 2008, which showed the progress of science and technology to the yield function was reducing. Therefore, the conversion rate of grain yield potential could be used to evaluate the trend of grain yield and the contribution of technological progress, and the method was practical and with low error. |
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