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| Early warning of farmland pollution caused by livestock and poultry feces in China and analysis of governance model effectiveness based on the balance between planting and breeding |
| Received:September 19, 2019 |
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| KeyWord:balance between planting and breeding;pollution by livestock and poultry feces;system dynamics;early warning;policy effect |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | LI Peng-cheng | Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China | | | HAN Cheng-ji | Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China | | | SHI Zi-zhong | Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China | | | WANG Ming-li | Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China | wangmingli@caas.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| To explore the pollution risk in farmlands caused by livestock and poultry feces in China based on the balance of planting and breeding, the risk index of pollution of livestock and poultry feces was defined, and the system dynamics method was employed to ascertain early warning. Through scenario analysis, the effects of different governance modes on pollution control and crop nutrient supply were simulated. Based on the simulation results, under inertial trend, from 2018 to 2025, the livestock and poultry feces would constitute a mild level pollution risk to the environment in China. Reduction, resourcefulness, and standardized discharge were the three effective ways to control pollution caused by livestock and poultry feces."Reduction model" would greatly reduce the self-sufficiency rate and total output value of livestock and poultry products. It was difficult to completely eliminate the pollution risk by improving the intensity of the "resource model". It was also difficult to eliminate the risk of pollution under the condition of meeting the demand of nitrogen fertilizer for crops as per the "standardized discharge model". Results show that taking "resource mode" as the primary mode and "standard emission mode" as the supplementary mode is an effective way to eliminate the current pollution risk. |
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