基于APCS-MLR模型的九洲江广东段不同水期水质变化特征及污染来源解析

张文博; 余香英; 薛弘涛; 刘晋涛; 蒋婧媛; 熊津晶

文章摘要

张文博,余香英,薛弘涛,刘晋涛,蒋婧媛,熊津晶.基于APCS-MLR模型的九洲江广东段不同水期水质变化特征及污染来源解析[J].农业环境科学学报,2024,43(2):401-410.

基于APCS-MLR模型的九洲江广东段不同水期水质变化特征及污染来源解析

Characteristics of water quality and pollution source apportionment in wet season and dry season based on absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression in Guangdong section of Jiuzhou River

投稿时间：2023-05-30

DOI：10.11654/jaes.2023-0424

中文关键词: 绝对主成分-多元线性回归模型污染源解析不同水期九洲江

英文关键词: APCS-MLR source apportionment wet and dry season Jiuzhou River

基金项目:国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（2015ZX07206-006-01）；广东省重点领域研发计划项目（2020B1111020002）；广东省环境科学研究院科技创新项目（HKYKJ-202201）

作者	单位	E-mail
张文博	广东省环境科学研究院, 广州 510000 粤港澳环境质量协同创新联合实验室, 广州 510000
余香英	广东省环境科学研究院, 广州 510000 粤港澳环境质量协同创新联合实验室, 广州 510000	tinyfishyxy@pku.org.cn
薛弘涛	广东省环境科学研究院, 广州 510000 粤港澳环境质量协同创新联合实验室, 广州 510000
刘晋涛	广东省环境科学研究院, 广州 510000 粤港澳环境质量协同创新联合实验室, 广州 510000
蒋婧媛	广东省环境科学研究院, 广州 510000 粤港澳环境质量协同创新联合实验室, 广州 510000
熊津晶	广东省环境科学研究院, 广州 510000 粤港澳环境质量协同创新联合实验室, 广州 510000

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中文摘要:

为探究九洲江广东段水质变化特征及其污染来源，选取了2021—2022年九洲江营仔国考断面自动站逐日水质数据，利用相关性分析、绝对主成分-多元线性回归（APCS-MLR）模型对九洲江不同水期水质特征及污染来源进行了研究。结果表明：九洲江营仔断面丰水期水质相对较差，高锰酸盐指数、总磷和浊度相较枯水期显著升高，溶解氧、pH相较枯水期显著下降；不同水期水质指标相关性存在一定差异，与枯水期相比，丰水期pH、溶解氧和浊度与其他水质指标的相关性有所增加，而高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷和总氮指标间的相关性有所减小；枯水期畜禽养殖源+城镇生活源对总磷、氨氮和总氮的绝对贡献率分别为58.47%、48.71%和44.14%，未识别污染源对高锰酸盐指数、水温、pH和电导率的绝对贡献率分别为63.08%、59.48%、54.90%和52.65%；丰水期农业面源+城镇面源对总氮、总磷和高锰酸盐指数的绝对贡献率分别为51.96%、41.38%和34.78%，气象因子对溶解氧、pH和氨氮的绝对贡献率分别为55.66%、40.75%和31.87%。综合来看，九洲江广东段水质指标枯水期主要受畜禽养殖源+城镇生活源和未识别污染源的影响，丰水期主要受农业面源+城镇面源和气象因子影响，故九洲江广东段水质管控不仅要加强畜禽养殖污染治理、城镇污水管网完善，还应注重保障生态流量、削减汛期面源污染等工作。

英文摘要:

To explore the characteristics of water quality and identify the pollution sources in Guangdong section of Jiuzhou River during wet season and dry seasons, the daily monitoring data of Yingzai national examination section of Jiuzhou River were chosen. The characteristics of water quality and pollution sources in wet and dry seasons were analyzed by using correlation analysis and absolute principal components-multiple linear regression model（APCS-MLR）. The results showed that the values of permanganate index, total phosphorus, and turbidity in wet season were higher than those in dry season. However, the values of dissolved oxygen and pH in wet season were lower than those in dry season. Compared to the dry season, the correlations between pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and other water quality indexes increased in wet season while the correlations between permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen in wet season decreased significantly than those in dry season．During the dry season, the livestock and poultry breeding sources and urban living sources contributed 58.47%, 48.71%, and 44.14%, of total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, and total nitrogen, respectively. In the dry season, the absolute contribution rate of unidentified pollution sources to permanganate index, water temperature, pH, and conductivity were 63.08%, 59.48%, 54.90%, and 52.65%, respectively. During the wet season, the absolute contribution rate of agricultural non-point sources to total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and permanganate index were 51.96%, 41.38%, and 34.78%, respectively. The absolute contribution rates of meteorological factors to dissolved oxygen, pH, and ammonia nitrogen in wet season were 55.66%, 40.75%, and 31.87%, respectively. In conclusion, the water quality indexes of Jiuzhou River were greatly affected by livestock and poultry breeding sources and unidentified pollution sources in dry season. In the wet season the main pollution sources of Jiuzhou River were agricultural non-point sources, urban non-point sources, and meteorological factors. To improve the water quality of Guangdong section of Jiuzhou River, the following tasks must be completed： control of livestock and poultry breeding pollution, improvement of the urban sewage network, scientific protection of ecological flow, and reduction of non-point source pollution during flood season.

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